Lecce vs Fiorentina: match statistics

Fiorentina holds a clear attacking advantage: 37 goals scored this season versus Lecce’s 21, with the visitors netting 5 goals in the last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 3; this is reflected in form — Fiorentina averages 2.0 points per game in the last five, Lecce 0.6. Visitors are more efficient in front of goal: away conversion rate 10% with 10.75 shots per game (≈1.06 goals), while Lecce posts 6% on 10.69 shots and ~0.69 goals per match. Looking at xG, values are similar (Lecce 1.16 xG at home vs Fiorentina 1.12 xG away), but Lecce significantly underperforms that potential — 0.69 goals vs 1.16 xG (diff -0.47), whereas Fiorentina has 1.06 goals vs 1.12 xG (diff -0.06). Defensively both teams are vulnerable, but recent trends favor the visitors: Lecce concedes 1.38 goals at home on average and 9 goals in the last 5, Fiorentina concedes 1.5 away and 5 in the last 5; additionally Lecce fail to score in 56% of home matches versus 38% for Fiorentina away. Considering superior efficiency, higher possession (51% vs 45%) and a markedly better points return in the last 5 matches, I forecast a Fiorentina win and assess probabilities as: 60% for the visitors, 25% draw, 15% home.

Seasonal metrics strongly favor BTTS: Lecce has BTTS in 69% of matches, Fiorentina in 56%, both above the league average of 46%. xG analysis shows both sides realistically create chances — Lecce xG for 1.63 vs Fiorentina xG against 1.66, and Fiorentina xG for 1.12 vs Lecce xG against 1.24 — which indicates potential for both teams to score. There are counterweights: Fiorentina failed to score in 38% of matches (vs 13% for Lecce), and in the last 5 games both teams have BTTS only 40% each, which reduces confidence. Additionally Lecce averages 15.75 shots with 4.25 on target vs Fiorentina’s 10.75 and 2.81, and both teams have conceded many goals this season (Lecce 45, Fiorentina 44), so I ultimately assign 67% to BTTS - Yes and 33% to No Goal.

Looking at xG: Lecce has xG_for 1.63 (actual goals average 1.25), while Fiorentina concede xG 1.66 away — this implies an expected value around 1.65 goals for the home side. Fiorentina have xG_for 1.12, whereas Lecce concede on average xG 1.24 at home, which translates to about 1.18 expected goals for the visitors; total xG is ~2.83. Seasonally Lecce matches go over 2.5 goals in 50% of cases, Fiorentina in 63% (average 56.5%), and BTTS rates are 69% for Lecce and 56% for Fiorentina — all favor goals from both sides. Additionally Lecce averages 15.75 shots (4.25 on target) versus Fiorentina 10.75 (2.81 on target), and in the last 5 games Lecce conceded 9 goals, so the strongest signal is over 2.5 (recommendation: over at line 2.5).

At half-time a draw appears most likely — both teams average 0.44 goals to the break (Lecce 0.44, Fiorentina 0.44), totaling around 0.88 goals, which favors a low-scoring first half. Lecce creates more chances (15.75 shots and 1.63 xG on average versus Fiorentina’s 10.75 shots and 1.12 xG), but has a lower conversion rate (8% vs 10%), so the shot volume advantage does not necessarily translate into a lead at the break. Fiorentina is in considerably better form over the last five matches — 60% wins versus Lecce’s 20% and an average of 1.0 goals scored compared to 0.6 — which increases their strength in the second half. Additionally, 88% of Fiorentina’s matches have at least one goal after the break (over05_2hg_percentage_away 88%), therefore the scenario draw at half-time and away win at full-time (X/2) is the strongest signal.