Lech Poznań II vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 4, while Lech Poznań II have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats over the same period, along with 11 goals conceded. The visitors are more effective away from home, averaging 2.00 goals per match with a 13% shot conversion rate, compared with the hosts’ 1.33 goals and 7% conversion rate at home. Lech do create more chances, as evidenced by 19 shots, 8.33 shots on target and an xG of 2.26 at their own stadium, so they should be capable of threatening the opposition defense. However, the hosts’ defensive record is a concern, with an average of 1.67 goals conceded and an xGA of 1.64, while Noteć have shown greater stability at both ends of the pitch in their last five matches. Despite the home advantage, a victory for the in-form visitors is marginally more likely in a game where both teams should score.

The signal for both sides to score is clear: Lech Poznań II have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, with this figure rising to 80% across their last five games. The hosts have kept no clean sheets this season, conceding an average of 1.33 goals, and as many as 2.2 goals per match in their last five outings. Noteć Czarnków score an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and 2.2 across their last five matches, with an average xG of 1.67, so they should be able to exploit their opponents’ defensive problems. Lech also have strong attacking arguments, scoring 2.0 goals per match, averaging 7.5 shots on target and creating chances worth 1.61 xG. Although Noteć have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches and conceded just 0.8 goals per game across their last five, the league records BTTS in as many as 75% of matches, making the BTTS - Yes outcome the more likely option.

Both teams average 2.0 goals scored per game this season, while the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.33 goals. In their last five matches, Lech Poznań II scored 9 and conceded 11 goals, producing a high average of 4.0 goals per game. Noteć Czarnków are in good attacking form, having scored 11 goals over the same period, with average xG of 1.44 and 1.85 xG allowed by their opponents. The 1.5-goal line has been covered in 100% of the hosts' matches and 75% of the visitors' games, while the league average is as high as 3.81 goals per match. Over 1.5 therefore has the strongest support both in terms of scoring consistency and the projected total of around 3.35 goals in the match.

A half-time draw followed by a Noteć win is the most likely outcome, as the visitors have not conceded a single goal before the break in their last five matches, although they have averaged only 0.6 goals scored during that period. Lech II have recorded a lead at the break in 67% of their home matches and did not concede before half-time in those games, but Noteć were level at half-time in 50% of their away fixtures, reinforcing the scenario of a cautious opening. After the interval, the advantage in current form shifts to the visitors: Noteć have averaged 1.6 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, while Lech II have managed just 0.2. Noteć have won 80% of their last five matches, scoring 2.2 goals and conceding 0.8 on average, whereas the hosts average 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Therefore, the most logical HT/FT outcome is X/2.