Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT: match statistics

Leones Negros have opened the season with 2 wins from 2 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 2, while Correcaminos have 1 win and 1 draw, with a 6:4 goal difference. In their last five matches, the hosts have won 3 times and scored 10 goals, whereas the visitors have managed just 1 victory, suffered 3 defeats and conceded as many as 13 goals. Correcaminos can nevertheless create chances away from home, averaging 19 shots, 7 on target and an xG of 2.10, so they have the tools to find the net. The visitors’ main weakness remains their defence: they concede an average of 3 goals per away match, have failed to keep a clean sheet, and their recent record of 1 win in 5 matches clearly favours the hosts.

The BTTS signal is very strong: both teams had matches with a goal scored by each side in 100% of cases this season, and neither kept a clean sheet. Leones Negros average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Correcaminos also score 3.0 goals but allow opponents 3.0 goals per match. In their last five appearances, the hosts recorded BTTS in 60% of matches, compared with 100% for the visitors, averaging 2.0 and 1.8 goals scored, as well as 1.2 and 2.6 goals conceded, respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.58 for the hosts and 1.47 for the visitors in the last five matches, while their defences allowed 1.66 and 1.73 xG, respectively. Although the league BTTS average is only 40%, the profile of both teams clearly points to a scenario in which each side scores at least one goal.

Both teams started the season averaging 3.0 goals in their matches, with each scoring 3.0 goals per game. In the hosts’ last five appearances, matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Correcaminos’ games averaged as many as 4.4, mainly due to conceding 2.6 goals per match. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.77 xG, compared with 2.10 xG for the visitors, while neither team has kept a clean sheet so far. In both profiles, all matches played to date have gone over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals, although such extreme results should be treated with some caution due to the limited sample size. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: the high quality of chances created and the visitors’ poor recent defensive record significantly reduce the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Leones Negros held the lead at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Correcaminos were trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 games. The hosts averaged 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors scored 0.4 goals during this period and conceded 1.4. Full-time form also favors the side from Guadalajara: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Correcaminos suffered 3 defeats and conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game, compared with 1.2 for the hosts. Although the visitors generate a higher average xG—2.10 versus 1.77—Leones Negros are more clinical, converting 23% of their shots into goals compared with the opponents’ 16%. The strongest scenario therefore points to the hosts taking the lead before half-time and maintaining it until the final whistle.