Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match with a slight edge for a draw. Leones Negros show solid home form with a 50% win rate at their venue and a favorable goal difference (+7), but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 PPG in the last 5 matches). Tepatitlán stands out with excellent current form, being unbeaten in their last 5 games (2.2 PPG), but they draw a high 55% of their away matches, which is their characteristic trait. Balanced ball possession stats (49% vs 50%) and similar xG values suggest tactical equilibrium. Considering the visitors' defensive solidity (0.91 goals conceded on average away) and their draw tendency, coupled with the hosts' home advantage, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara play Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 15 February 2026 at 19:00. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.20 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.35 and concedes 0.95. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 57%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 50%. Over 2.5: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 43%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.53. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 12.5 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.2.
Match halves
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.67. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 46-60 (9 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (22 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match with a slight edge for a draw. Leones Negros show solid home form with a 50% win rate at their venue and a favorable goal difference (+7), but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 PPG in the last 5 matches). Tepatitlán stands out with excellent current form, being unbeaten in their last 5 games (2.2 PPG), but they draw a high 55% of their away matches, which is their characteristic trait. Balanced ball possession stats (49% vs 50%) and similar xG values suggest tactical equilibrium. Considering the visitors' defensive solidity (0.91 goals conceded on average away) and their draw tendency, coupled with the hosts' home advantage, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.6 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.2 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.35 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 0.95 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 35% (14 of 40 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 73% of matches (29 of 40 matches), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Over / Under — Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.27 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (22 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.73 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.30 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 53% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 23% | 25% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 80% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 0 - 1 - 0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 0:0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara score 1.20 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.35. The Ascenso MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's matches and 50% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The statistical background for Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.