Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match with a slight edge for a draw. Leones Negros show solid home form with a 50% win rate at their venue and a favorable goal difference (+7), but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 PPG in the last 5 matches). Tepatitlán stands out with excellent current form, being unbeaten in their last 5 games (2.2 PPG), but they draw a high 55% of their away matches, which is their characteristic trait. Balanced ball possession stats (49% vs 50%) and similar xG values suggest tactical equilibrium. Considering the visitors' defensive solidity (0.91 goals conceded on average away) and their draw tendency, coupled with the hosts' home advantage, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara played against Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 15, 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Recent form
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Tepatitlán de Morelos has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 2.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.33 goals per game and allows 1.57. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.26 and allows 0.91. Games in this league average 2.93 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's games and 52% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's. The Over 2.5 rates are 43% and 35%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tepatitlán de Morelos has the higher season xG average, 1.63 to 1.57 per game. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara takes 12.4 shots per game, while Tepatitlán de Morelos takes 13.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.76 goals per game after halftime. Tepatitlán de Morelos leads at halftime in 26% and scores 0.70 after halftime.
When the teams score
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (7 goals). For Tepatitlán de Morelos, it is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.93 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match with a slight edge for a draw. Leones Negros show solid home form with a 50% win rate at their venue and a favorable goal difference (+7), but their recent overall form is poor (0.8 PPG in the last 5 matches). Tepatitlán stands out with excellent current form, being unbeaten in their last 5 games (2.2 PPG), but they draw a high 55% of their away matches, which is their characteristic trait. Balanced ball possession stats (49% vs 50%) and similar xG values suggest tactical equilibrium. Considering the visitors' defensive solidity (0.91 goals conceded on average away) and their draw tendency, coupled with the hosts' home advantage, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 175% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 2.2 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara is 6% better for: goals scored per game.
1.33 goals / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.26 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 73% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.57 goals / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 0.91 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 71% of games (15 of 21 meczów), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 meczów).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 70% of games (16 of 23 meczów), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 35%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.90 | 2.93 | ▼ 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 54% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 75% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Édson Ulises Rivera VargasOff: Carlos Ernesto Cisneros Barajas
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Daniel TorresOff: Alejandro de Jesús Bravo Santiago
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Tepatitlán de Morelos. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 0:0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara score 1.33 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.26. The Ascenso MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's matches and 52% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The statistical background for Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.