Liepāja vs Super Nova: match statistics

Liepāja have a clear home advantage: they win 53% of their home matches and average 1.82 goals per game, while Super Nova lose 47% of their away matches and score an average of 0.88 goals in them. The hosts hit the target more often (4.82 versus 3.82 shots on target per match) and are more clinical in front of goal (15% versus 9%). The quality of chances created also favors Liepāja, although the gap is smaller: their home xG is 1.47, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.29. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 7 goals and conceded 5, while Super Nova have scored just 3, conceded 11 and suffered 4 defeats. Although Liepāja have won only once during this period, their superior finishing and the visitors’ recent defensive struggles make a home win the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Super Nova's scoring record: they have failed to score in 35% of their matches and have managed just 3 goals in total across their last five games. Both teams scored in 41% of Super Nova's matches, compared with 65% of Liepāja's, although the figure was 40% for each side across their last five games. Liepāja are more likely to score, having averaged 1.4 goals per match recently while Super Nova conceded 2.2. Although Liepāja have conceded an average of 1.71 goals per match this season, the visitors' weaker scoring output—0.88 goals per match for the season and 0.6 across their last five appearances—does not provide a strong enough indication that they will also find the net. BTTS - No means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 82% of Liepāja’s matches and 94% of Super Nova’s games. At the same time, at least 2 goals were scored in 82% and 65% of their matches, respectively, so the lower line offers no equally clear edge. In their last 5 matches, Liepāja averaged 1.4 goals scored, while Super Nova conceded 2.2, increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the net. However, the visitors scored just 0.6 goals per game over that period, while the hosts conceded 1.0, tempering expectations for their attack. The projected total of 2.55 goals therefore favors Under 3.5, although Super Nova’s recent run, in which 80% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals, represents a significant risk.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Liepāja were level at the break in 59% of their matches, compared with 47% for Super Nova. Recent form supports a subsequent home win: over their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while the visitors scored 0.6 and conceded 2.2 goals per game. The difference after half-time is particularly significant: Liepāja have recently averaged 1.0 goals in the second half, while Super Nova have scored just 0.2 and conceded 1.2. However, this pick is not certain, as the visitors have won more often than the hosts over the season—41% of matches compared with 24%. Overall, frequent half-time draws and Liepāja’s markedly better recent results after the break point to an X/1 scenario.