Líšeň vs Sparta Praha: match statistics

Sparta Praha are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in the process, while Líšeň have failed to win any of their five games, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 11. The visitors create more chances away from home, averaging 13.5 shots compared with their opponents’ 8.5, while their xG stands at 1.55 versus 1.03 for Líšeň. However, the hosts have a very poor home defensive record, conceding an average of 3 goals per match and allowing opponents an xG of 2.02. The home advantage is limited, as Líšeň have lost both of their home matches so far, just as Sparta have lost both of their away games, but the visitors’ superior recent results and the quality of chances they create point towards a Sparta Praha victory.

The case for both teams to score is supported by the fact that Líšeň have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, while their opponents have averaged 1.0 goal against them. Sparta also have a 0% rate of matches without conceding and have conceded as many as 2.5 goals on average away from home, which should give the hosts good opportunities to score. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS at 60%, with Líšeň conceding an average of 2.2 goals and Sparta scoring 1.8. Although Líšeň have scored only 0.8 goals per match recently, Sparta’s weak defense and their average xG against of 1.50 support the prospect of a home goal, making the BTTS - Yes outcome more likely.

Líšnia’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, as the team scored 0.8 but conceded as many as 2.2. Sparta’s games over the same period were even more open: their averages stand at 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, amounting to 3.4 goals per match. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of the visitors’ games, while both teams scored in 60% of those fixtures. The goal potential is also supported by xG: Líšnia recorded 1.09 compared with 1.50 allowed by Sparta, while Sparta posted 1.54 against 1.74 allowed by the hosts. A forecast of 2.95 goals gives a clearly strongest edge to Over 1.5, as even with lower finishing efficiency from both teams, two goals should be expected more often than in four out of five matches.

The strongest signal comes from current form: Líšeň have won none of their last five matches, scoring just 0.8 goals and conceding 2.2 on average, while Sparta Praha have won 3 of their last 5 games and scored an average of 1.8 goals. The hosts were behind at the break in 4 of their last 5 appearances, scoring only 0.2 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors took the lead in 40% of such matches and averaged 0.8 goals in the first half. Sparta have also shown better second-half form: they won the second half in 60% of their recent matches, averaging 1.0 goal scored, compared with Líšeň’s 0.6. Although the home/away-only statistics favor the hosts, they are based on a very small sample of just 2 matches; therefore, the more reliable five-match form points to Sparta leading at the break and securing the full-time win: HT/FT 2/2.