Llandudno vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics

A very evenly matched game is expected between two teams with perfect home and away records, although the visitors have a slight edge in terms of arguments. Caernarfon Town have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 15 goals in them, while Llandudno have recorded 3 wins and scored 8 goals. Away from home, the visitors average 3 goals, 6 shots on target and an 21% shot conversion rate, compared with Llandudno’s 2.5 goals, 4.5 shots on target and 18% conversion rate at home. However, the hosts are more solid without the ball, conceding just 0.75 goals per match at home with an xG against of 0.85, compared with 1.33 goals conceded and an xG against of 1.10 for Caernarfon Town away from home. Neither team has yet failed to score under these conditions, so an open game is expected, in which the visitors’ current attacking form could prove decisive in securing a narrow victory.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: Caernarfon Town have seen both teams score in 67% of their matches, while the figure for Llandudno is 50%, compared with a league average of 48%. Both teams find the net regularly, with the hosts averaging 2.25 goals and the visitors as many as 3.00, alongside 6 shots on target per match for each side. In their last five matches, Llandudno averaged 1.6 goals, while Caernarfon Town averaged 3.0, with average xG figures of 1.55 and 1.57 respectively. However, the hosts’ defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, and the fact that BTTS occurred in only 40% of the last five appearances for both teams increase the risk of this pick. Nevertheless, neither side has recorded a match without scoring this season, and the visitors’ attacking potential slightly favor a goal for each team.

Both teams have surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their league matches so far, which is an exceptionally strong signal for the over market. Llandudno average 2.25 goals at home, while Caernarfon Town average as many as 3.00 away, with neither side yet finishing a match without scoring. The visitors have been particularly attacking in their last five games, scoring 15 goals, or 3.0 per match. The chance-quality model indicates a total of 3.05 expected goals, as the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.60 xG, while the visitors produce 1.40 xG. Over 1.5 therefore carries the highest probability, while the 2.5 line is also attractive but more vulnerable to an outcome with exactly two goals.

Caernarfon Town are clearly the stronger side in the current campaign: they have won 100% of their matches and score an average of 3.0 goals, while Llandudno have a 50% win rate and concede an average of 1.25 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the visitors held a lead at the break in 67% of their matches and in as many as 80% of their last five outings, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time. Llandudno have scored only 0.4 goals before the break across their last five matches, failed to score in this period in 60% of games, and were behind at half-time in 40% of them. The visitors average 14.0 shots and 6.0 shots on target, while their 21% conversion rate exceeds the hosts' 17%, further strengthening the forecast of an early lead. After the interval, Llandudno can respond, averaging 1.2 goals in their last five matches; however, Caernarfon Town's first-half superiority and a run of four wins in five outings provide the strongest support for the 2/2 HT/FT outcome.