Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia sit 3rd and remain unbeaten this season, recording 6 wins and 2 draws, while Lokomotiv Plovdiv have lost 7 of their 9 matches. The visitors have scored 12 goals in their last five games and average 2 points per match, whereas the hosts have managed just 2 goals during that period and suffered four defeats. Away from home, CSKA create significantly more high-quality chances, averaging 2.26 xG compared with Lokomotiv’s 1.22 xG at home, while also registering an average of 16.67 shots to the hosts’ 8. CSKA’s away defense concedes just 0.33 goals per match, has kept a clean sheet in 67% of games and restricts opponents to 0.99 xG, limiting the chances of a low-scoring Lokomotiv side. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as CSKA have drawn 2 of their 3 away matches, but the visitors’ advantage in form, chance quality and defensive organization points to a CSKA victory.

The BTTS - Yes scenario has limited support, as Lokomotiv have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, with both teams scoring in only 20% of those fixtures. CSKA Sofia have a solid defense: they have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches this season and concede just 0.33 goals per game on average. The hosts have recorded an xG of 1.12 in their recent run, while CSKA allow opponents an average of 1.17 xG, which does not give Lokomotiv’s attack a clear advantage. The visitors should nevertheless find the net, having scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Lokomotiv have conceded 1.4 goals per game. Although CSKA’s recent matches have produced BTTS in 80% of cases, the hosts’ poor current finishing and the visitors’ defensive strength provide stronger support for the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

CSKA Sofia have shown a very solid away defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches. Lokomotiv are in poor current offensive form: they have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 games, averaging 0.4 per match, with an xG of 1.12. The visitors are currently averaging 2.4 goals scored, but their away matches throughout the season have never exceeded the 3.5-goal line, while 67% have ended with a maximum of two goals. The average xG figures also point to a controlled game, as CSKA’s 2.01 xG combined with the 1.19 xG allowed by Lokomotiv gives the visitors an advantage, but not necessarily a high-scoring game. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as the hosts’ poor finishing and CSKA’s defensive profile limit the risk of four goals being scored.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia victory at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for the hosts. Lokomotiv are currently in poor form: they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game and failing to score after half-time in any of them. Over the same period, CSKA won 3 of 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals, including 1.6 after the break while conceding only 0.4. The visitors are also creating slightly higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 2.26 compared with Lokomotiv’s 2.18, while their average xG conceded is just 0.99. The hosts have a clear advantage in the season-long data, but current form and CSKA’s significantly greater efficiency after the interval point towards a full-time turnaround in favor of the visitors.