Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Botev Plovdiv: match statistics

Botev Plovdiv are fifth in the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while 11th-placed Lokomotiv Sofia have recorded 2 wins over the same period. The visitors have scored 10 goals and conceded 4 in those games, compared with 5 scored and 5 conceded by the hosts, pointing to a more pronounced upturn in form for Botev. Away from home, Botev average 1.33 goals per match, compared with Lokomotiv’s 0.83 at home, although the hosts create chances with a slightly higher xG: 1.49 versus 1.29. The visitors’ chances are hindered by their away defensive record, with an average of 2 goals conceded per match, and the fact that they have lost 67% of their games on the road. Even so, Lokomotiv are yet to win at home and concede an average of 1.83 goals there, making Botev more likely to win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is that BTTS - No landed in each of Botev’s last 5 matches, despite the visitors averaging 2.0 goals. This market means at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0-0 draw or that neither team scores. This season, Botev have failed to score in 50% of their matches, while Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 50%, increasing the risk that the visitors will be shut out. On the other hand, the hosts average 1.5 goals with an xG of 1.69, while Botev concede 2.0 goals against opponents’ xG of 1.82, so a Lokomotiv goal looks likely. Although the seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored stands at 50% for Lokomotiv and 33% for Botev, the visitors’ recent run and their frequent failure to score support a scenario in which only one team finds the net.

Lokomotiv Sofia average 1.5 goals scored at home, while Botev Plovdiv concede 2.0 on the road, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to find the net. The xG figures also support this: the hosts average 1.69 xG, while their opponents allow chances worth 1.82 xG. Botev, however, score 1.33 goals per away match, although Lokomotiv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home games. At least two goals were scored in 67% of Lokomotiv’s home matches and 83% of Botev’s away matches, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest pick. The 2.5 line is less certain: it was cleared in 33% and 67% of those matches, respectively.

Lokomotiv led at the break in 3 of 6 home matches, drew the other 3, and did not concede in the first half; Botev were trailing at half-time in 3 of 6 away games. This points to the hosts taking the lead, especially as they average 1.00 goals before the break while the visitors concede 1.17. The case for Lokomotiv after 90 minutes is supported by 4 wins in 6 home matches, compared with Botev’s 4 defeats in 6 away games, as well as the hosts’ 1.69 xG against 1.82 xG conceded by the visitors. However, the 1/1 pick is not a safe one: Botev have won 4 of their last 5 matches and led at the break in 3 of them, while Lokomotiv did not lead at half-time at all during that period. Despite the visitors’ improved form, Lokomotiv’s strong starts at home combined with Botev’s weaker away record make the 1/1 scenario the single most likely outcome.