Lomza vs Ząbkovia Ząbki: match statistics

The favorite is Łomża: they sit 3rd and win 67% of home matches, averaging 2.58 goals per game and 1.9 xG in home fixtures. In the last 5 matches Łomża scored 10 goals (2.0 per game), won 3 of them and is collecting 1.8 points per match in that period, whereas Ząbkovia lost all 5 recent games, scoring only 3 goals (0.6 per game) and recording 0 points. Łomża also has the superior home defense: they concede 1.08 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 42% of home games, while Ząbkovia concedes 2.09 goals away and has no clean sheets on the road (0%). In chance creation the hosts average 15.88 shots and 6.75 on target at home versus the visitors' 11.88 shots and 5.13 on target; although Ząbkovia have a higher shot conversion rate (19% vs 17%), their lower volume of chances and inferior xG (1.55) limit their effectiveness. Considering the xG advantage (1.9 vs 1.55), the hosts’ zero percentage of games without scoring and the visitors’ five-game losing streak, I estimate Łomża’s win probability at approximately 70%, draw 18% and Ząbkovia win 12%.

Seasonal indicators strongly argue for BTTS: Łomża has a seasonal both-teams-to-score rate of 77%, Ząbkovia 91%, and the league average is 64%, which provides a strong signal that both teams regularly score. Both sides record high average goals scored — Łomża 2.54, Ząbkovia 2.36 — with average goals conceded 1.62 and 2.09; xG is 2.10 for Łomża and 1.55 for Ząbkovia, and xG against is about 1.43 for Łomża and 1.44 for Ząbkovia, so the offenses look dangerous. In the short term the last 5 matches give mixed signals: BTTS 40% for Łomża and 60% for Ząbkovia, yet Łomża in those five fixtures scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) and conceded 5 (1.0 avg), while Ząbkovia scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 14 (2.8 avg), indicating high defensive vulnerability from the away side. Additionally Ząbkovia has 0% clean sheets this season, Łomża 8%, and shots on target 7.67 versus 5.13 with conversion rates 14% and 19% suggesting chances will be converted. Considering the seasonal 77%/91% BTTS, high goal averages and Ząbkovia’s weak defense, I assess BTTS probability at 85% vs 15% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet as the strongest signal.

Both teams show high goal potential: Lomza scores an average of 2.54 goals per match, Ząbkovia Ząbki 2.36, against a league average of 3.42 goals per game. xG analysis confirms the pairing's offensive nature: Lomza’s attacking xG 2.10 and Ząbkovia’s defensive xG conceded 1.44 yield an expected 1.77 goals for the home side, while the visitors’ xG 1.55 and xG conceded to the hosts 1.43 give 1.49 for Ząbkovia — a combined 3.26. Recent form over the last 5 matches reinforces the forecast: Lomza scored 10 goals in their last 5 (2.0 avg), and Ząbkovia conceded 14 in that period (2.8 avg), which increases the likelihood of goals on both ends and BTTS (77% for the home team, 91% for the away team). Seasonal over percentages provide strong signals: Over 1.5 occurred in 85% of Lomza’s matches and 100% of Ząbkovia’s, while Over 2.5 appears in 77% and 91% of cases — averaging roughly 93% for Over 1.5 and about 84% for Over 2.5. Consequently, I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal (probability ≈93%), with concurrent support for Over 2.5 (≈84%) and a moderate chance for Over 3.5 (≈59%).

Lomża is the favorite: they win 62% of matches and average 1.85 points per game, with xG 2.10 versus Ząbkovia’s 1.55, and average 16.33 shots (7.67 on target) compared to the visitors’ 11.88 (5.13 on target). At half-time the hosts lead in 46% of matches and score an average 0.85 goals to Ząbkovia’s 0.70, and in the last five matches Lomża has 3 wins (60%) while Ząbkovia has lost all 5 (100%), which increases the likelihood of the home side holding a lead at the break. Second halves, however, yield more goals: over 0.5 goals after the break occurs in 92% of the hosts’ games and 100% of the visitors’, and both teams score in full time in 77% of Lomża’s matches and 91% of Ząbkovia’s matches, so the visitors have a strong chance of scoring after the break. Considering the xG advantage (2.10 vs 1.55), Lomża’s superior defense (1.62 goals conceded on average versus Ząbkovia’s 2.09) and the tendency to lead at half-time (46%), the most likely scenario is Lomża leading at half-time and the home side winning after 90 minutes. Therefore I assign HT/FT 1/1 a 35% probability; alternatives are HT 1 and draw at FT 15% (1/X) and draw at HT and home win 8% (X/1), while an away win or a turnaround are less likely.