Londrina vs Operário PR: match statistics

Londrina sit only 18th in the standings, but they average 1.48 xG at home, while Operário PR allow opponents as much as 1.75 xG away from home. The hosts concede 1.17 goals per match at their own stadium and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, clearly outperforming the visitors, who concede an average of 1.33 goals away and finish only 25% of their matches without conceding. Operário are higher in the table, but their away record includes a 42% loss rate and a -2 goal difference, which limits the significance of this advantage. Both teams are in poor recent form: neither has won any of their last five matches, with Londrina scoring 2 goals during that period compared with Operário’s 3. Home advantage and the more favorable chance-quality profile marginally favor Londrina, although their high home draw rate of 42% keeps the risk of a share of the points significant.

Although the seasonal BTTS rates are moderately high—54% for Londrina and 58% for Operário PR—the current attacking form of both teams clearly weakens the scenario of goals at both ends. Londrina have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while Operário PR have scored 3, averaging 0.6 goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their matches this season, while the visitors have failed to score in 25% of games, increasing the likelihood that at least one side will be held scoreless. Londrina do create more chances, with an average xG of 1.69 and 5.0 shots on target per match compared with Operário’s 1.20 xG and 3.67 shots on target, but their recent conversion of these chances has been very poor. The trend across the last five matches, with BTTS at 40% for Londrina and low goal production from both teams, provides a slightly stronger argument for BTTS - No.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: the league average is 2.28 goals, while the forecast for this game is 2.30. Londrina creates chances worth an average of 1.69 xG at home and takes 16.69 shots per match, but has scored only 2 goals in its last five appearances, averaging 0.4 per game. Over the same period, Operário scored 3 goals, while its season-long away attacking average stands at 1.17 goals, limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. Historically, under 3.5 goals has landed in 77% of Londrina’s matches and 83% of Operário’s, while neither team has exceeded the 4.5-goal line in more than 15% of cases. Therefore, the best option is Under 3.5: the data allows for a result with 2-3 goals but clearly does not support a scenario featuring at least four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at the final whistle, as Londrina were level after 45 minutes in 62% of their matches, compared with 58% for Operário; over their last five games, these figures rose to 60% and 80%, respectively. The hosts concede just 0.38 goals per match before the break and keep a clean sheet in the first half in 69% of their appearances, limiting the likelihood of the visitors taking an early lead. Both teams are in poor form: neither has won any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals for Londrina and 0.6 for Operário over the full 90 minutes. However, Londrina have greater overall match potential, with an xG of 1.69 compared with their opponents’ 1.20 and an average of 5.0 shots on target against Operário’s 3.67. Therefore, after a draw at half-time, a narrow home win is more realistic than an away victory.