Londrina vs Ponte Preta: match statistics

Londrina sit 18th, while Ponte Preta are bottom of the table and have lost as many as 20 of their 26 matches this season. At home, the hosts average 1.23 goals scored with an xG of 1.52, whereas the visitors score just 0.58 goals away from home, with an xG of 0.96. Ponte Preta’s away defensive record is poor, conceding an average of 2.58 goals per match and failing to keep a single clean sheet, which should give Londrina a clear advantage in chance creation. Both teams are in poor form, with Londrina winless in their last five matches, while Ponte Preta have scored just 1 goal and conceded 13 during that period. Despite the hosts’ struggles, their significantly more stable home performances and the visitors’ 92% away defeat rate point towards a Londrina win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Ponte Preta’s very poor finishing: the visitors score an average of 0.58 goals per season, and just 0.2 goals in their last 5 matches, finding the net only once. Ponte Preta have failed to score in 67% of their league games, while their BTTS rate stands at 33% and has dropped to 20% across their last five appearances. Londrina have also been unimpressive in attack, averaging 0.64 goals per match and 0.8 over their last 5 fixtures, although the visitors’ weak defense, conceding 2.58 goals per game, gives the hosts a realistic chance of scoring at least once. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of matches, but their opponents’ limited attacking potential, reflected in an xG of 0.96 and just 2.83 shots on target on average, significantly increases the risk of Ponte Preta failing to score again. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 86% of Londrina’s matches and 75% of Ponte Preta’s games. Londrina score only 0.64 goals per match on average, while Ponte Preta average 0.58, with the visitors scoring just 1 goal in their last five appearances, or 0.2 per game. The hosts should nevertheless be able to exploit the opponents’ defensive weakness, as they concede an average of 2.58 goals and have a high average xG against of 2.34. At the same time, Londrina have not scored more than one goal in any match this season, while Ponte Preta have also failed to score three goals even once. An estimated goal distribution of 1.55 for the hosts and 0.65 for the visitors gives a total of 2.20, clearly supporting a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time, after which Londrina will turn the game in their favor. The hosts were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Ponte Preta went into half-time with the score tied in as many as 42% of their games this season. Londrina hold a clear edge in chance creation, averaging 1.34 xG compared with their opponents’ 0.96, and also record an average of 12 shots to Ponte Preta’s 8.5. After the break, the visitors are particularly vulnerable to conceding: they have failed to score in their last five matches while conceding an average of 1.8 goals, whereas Londrina conceded just 0.4. Ponte Preta’s poor form, including four defeats in their last five matches and an 80% loss rate over the course of the season, further supports the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time.