Londrina vs Vila Nova: match statistics

I back an away win (Vila Nova) based on a clear table advantage — Vila Nova sits 4th while Londrina is 18th. In the last 5 matches the gap is significant: Londrina averages 0.6 points per game and has scored 5 goals while conceding 11, whereas Vila Nova averages 1.6 points per game and in those five fixtures scored 8 and conceded 6. Home/away splits also show differences: Londrina at home averages 1.0 goal and concedes 1.75 per match (xG 1.34 for, 1.35 against) and has yet to win at home (0% wins), while Vila Nova on the road scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 (xG 1.37 for, 1.46 against). The visitors display better shot efficiency and control — 3.6 shots on target on average and 56% possession versus the hosts' 3.0 shots on target and 46% possession, with a conversion rate of 11% vs 8%. Given these numbers, Londrina’s poor run (form lllwl, home goal difference -3) and Vila Nova’s greater consistency, I assign a higher probability to an away victory.

Seasonal indicators strongly favor BTTS: Londrina has BTTS in 80% of matches, Vila Nova in 60%, giving an average signal of around 70% versus the league average of 50%. Londrina has not recorded a home match without scoring this season (percentage of matches without a goal 0%), and each team has only 20% clean sheets, meaning individually they concede in about 80% of matches. In the last 5 matches Londrina scored 5 and conceded 11 goals (averages 1.0 and 2.2), while Vila Nova scored 8 and conceded 6 (averages 1.6 and 1.2), which highlights the hosts' susceptibility to conceding and the visitors' ability to score. xG and offensive metrics confirm the likelihood of goal exchange: Londrina has 1.56 xG, 4.8 shots on target and 13% conversion, while Vila Nova has 1.37 xG, 3.6 shots on target and 11% conversion, with Vila Nova conceding an average 1.46 xG. Based on this I tip BTTS = 'Yes' as the strongest signal and assign it a 72% probability versus 28% for 'No'.

The xG model indicates 1.51 expected goals for Londrina (xG_for_home 1.56 vs xG_against_away 1.46) and 1.18 for Vila Nova (xG_for_away 1.37 vs xG_against_home 0.99), totaling ≈2.69 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.69 yields estimated probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈75%, Over 2.5 ≈50% and Over 3.5 ≈28%. Seasonal metrics support a goal-prone profile: Londrina has 100% of matches >1.5 and 80% BTTS, while Vila Nova has 60% BTTS; hosts average 14.4 shots (4.8 on target) with 13% conversion versus guests’ 12.8 shots and 11% conversion. Additionally, Londrina conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per match), increasing the likelihood of a higher total. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (back the Over at 1.5), therefore I recommend this line as the best pick.

I back X/1 (draw at half-time, Londrina win) because both teams record a draw at half-time in 40% of their matches, increasing the likelihood of an even score after 45 minutes. Londrina holds a clear seasonal advantage: 1.8 goals per game versus Vila Nova’s 1.4, xG 1.56 versus 1.37 and lower expected goals conceded 0.99 versus 1.46, so they should be more dangerous over the full match. In the last five games Londrina trailed at the break in 4 of 5 matches (80%), but after the break they score on average 1.2 goals and concede only 0.4, and they collected 11 points in second halves (an average of 2.2 points in those matches), which demonstrates a capacity for turnaround. The home side averages 4.8 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.6 and has a higher conversion rate 13% vs 11%, increasing the chance of a decisive goal after the break. Considering the 40% half-time draws, superior xG metrics and Londrina’s strong second-half performance, I assess the X/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario as most probable (25%).