Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia: match statistics

Ludogorets are unbeaten this season, with a record of 6 wins and 2 draws, while Septemvri Sofia have lost 4 of their 8 matches. The hosts win 75% of their home games, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, whereas the visitors score only 0.75 goals away from home and concede 1.5. Ludogorets’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: they average 10.75 shots and 4.25 shots on target per match, compared with 5.75 and 2.75 for Septemvri. The hosts’ xG stands at 1.35, while their opponents allow 1.26 xG, which supports the likelihood of Ludogorets scoring at least one or two goals. Ludogorets have earned points in each of their last 5 matches, winning 3, while Septemvri have suffered 2 defeats in their last 5 games. Therefore, a home win is the most likely outcome.

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 50%, slightly below the league average of 56%, but Ludogorets’ recent form clearly increases the match’s goal potential. The hosts have averaged 1.8 goals over their last five matches, recorded an xG of 1.60, and registered BTTS in 80% of their appearances. Septemvri Sofia have averaged 1.0 goal in their last five fixtures, while Ludogorets conceded 1.0 goal per match during this period, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring. Septemvri’s defense allowed opponents an average of 1.4 goals over their last five matches, with an xG against of 1.15, supporting the expectation of at least one home goal. The BTTS - Yes pick is moderately preferred, although 25% of both teams’ matches ended with one side failing to score, so the edge is not particularly strong.

Ludogorets averaged 1.8 goals scored and created chances worth 1.60 xG across their last five matches, while Septemvri Sofia conceded 1.4 goals per game during the same period. The visitors, however, have more limited offensive potential: they average 1.0 goals scored in their last five appearances, with 1.20 xG, while Ludogorets restrict opponents to just 0.86 xG. The 3.5 line was not covered in 75% of Ludogorets’ matches and in all of Septemvri Sofia’s matches so far, clearly supporting the lower outcome. At the same time, both teams had 75% of their matches finish with at least two goals, so the projected 2.60 goals does not rule out an open game, but points more strongly towards a result in the 2-3 goals range. The strongest edge is therefore on Under 3.5, as the estimated attacking and defensive profiles do not justify a regular four-goal scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Ludogorets win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Septemvri recorded the same rate. The visitors failed to score before half-time in any of those five games, whereas Ludogorets averaged 0.8 goals, limiting Septemvri’s chances of taking the lead at the break. After half-time, the hosts averaged 1.8 points per match and did not lose any of their last five second halves, while Septemvri conceded an average of 1.0 goal during those periods. Ludogorets’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.42 compared with 1.09, while shots on target average 4.75 versus 2.75. Overall match form further supports this direction, with the hosts winning three of their last five matches and remaining unbeaten, while the visitors lost two of five. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/1.