Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City: match statistics
Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lugazi Municipal play Mbarara City in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match date is 6 May 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Lugazi Municipal: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Mbarara City: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lugazi Municipal scores 0.63 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Mbarara City scores 0.87 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lugazi Municipal 30%, Mbarara City 57%. Over 2.5: Lugazi Municipal 37%, Mbarara City 40%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Mbarara City has higher xG: 1.31 vs 1.28. Lugazi Municipal: 8.2 shots per match, Mbarara City: 8.2.
Match halves
Lugazi Municipal: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.30. Mbarara City: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
Lugazi Municipal: 76-90+ (9 goals). Mbarara City: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
The hosts hold the advantage and I project their victory. Lugazi Municipal wins 31% of home matches, while Mbarara City secures victory in only 8% of away games, highlighting a significant home efficiency gap. Defensively the hosts perform better — they concede 1.23 goals per home match versus 2.00 conceded by the visitors on the road; in the last 5 matches Lugazi conceded 4 goals and Mbarara 9. Offensively the hosts score 1.15 goals per home match with xG 1.47, averaging 11.33 shots of which 3.25 are on target and a conversion rate of 7%, while the visitors have 0.77 goals, xG 1.23, 9.58 shots and 2.75 on target with an 8% conversion — this indicates more high-quality chances for Lugazi. Additionally, the hosts keep clean sheets in 23% of home games versus 8% of away games for Mbarara and average 1.0 point in the last 5 matches compared to the visitors' 0.8 points, reinforcing their chances of triumph.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lugazi Municipal | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mbarara City is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal · 1.8 pts / match - Mbarara City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbarara City is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
0.63 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal · 0.87 goals / match - Mbarara City
Lugazi Municipal is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal · 1.57 goals / match - Mbarara City
Lugazi Municipal scores in 37% of matches (11 of 30 matches), while Mbarara City keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
Mbarara City scores in 70% of matches (21 of 30 matches), while Lugazi Municipal keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Lugazi Municipal
Over / Under — Mbarara City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lugazi Municipal is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal · 0.93 pts / match - Mbarara City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lugazi Municipal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 17%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mbarara City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lugazi Municipal
Mbarara City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Lugazi Municipal | Liga | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.83 | 2.09 | ▲ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 30% | 38% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 37% | 35% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 39% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 59% | • 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 62% | ▲ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lugazi Municipal 0 - 1 - 0 Mbarara City. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?
The Uganda Premier League match finished Lugazi Municipal 0:1 Mbarara City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?
Lugazi Municipal score 0.63 goals per game on average and Mbarara City 0.87. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 30% of Lugazi Municipal's matches and 57% of Mbarara City's.
What form are Lugazi Municipal and Mbarara City in?
Over the last 5 games Lugazi Municipal have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Mbarara City 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.