Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem: match statistics

Beitar Jerusalem is a slight favorite on paper — they sit 2nd with 21 wins and 75 goals scored, while Maccabi Tel Aviv are 3rd with 19 wins and 70 goals. Away, Beitar averages 2.69 goals per game and has a shot conversion of 17%, whereas Maccabi at home score 2.12 on average with 13% conversion, giving the visitors a clear efficiency edge. However, Maccabi defend strongly at home — conceding 1.18 goals per game, recording 41% clean sheets and FTS 0%, versus Beitar’s 1.38 conceded, 19% clean sheets and 6% FTS on the road, so the hosts can limit the visitors’ attacking potential. xG indicates a balanced contest: home xG is 2.00 versus away xG of 1.83, but Beitar register more shots on target (6 vs 5.76) and higher possession (62% vs 56%), which increases their chance to convert opportunities. Considering season balance (goal difference +21 vs +16), identical 2 points per game in the last 5 matches and the visitors’ better conversion, I predict a Beitar win.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Maccabi 59% and Beitar 75%, averaging ~67% which exceeds the league level of 54%. Beitar scores 2.69 goals per game with xG 1.83 and a conversion rate of 17%, while Maccabi has xG 1.84 and concedes only 0.94 goals per game, so Beitar’s attack has a realistic chance to score. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for Maccabi in 40% of games and for Beitar in 60%, and matches over 2.5 goals account for 53% (Maccabi) and 81% (Beitar), which further supports a goals-heavy scenario. A counterargument is that Maccabi has 35% clean sheets versus Beitar’s 19%, which partially reduces the BTTS probability, but given Beitar’s attacking advantage and the high seasonal BTTS, the most likely scenario is BTTS - Yes.

Both teams show strong offensive metrics: Beitar scores an average of 2.69 goals per match versus Maccabi's 1.88, with xG of 1.83 (Beitar) and 1.84 (Maccabi). Calculating expected goals as the average of the team's attacking xG and the opponent's defensive xG yields 1.54 for the hosts and 1.53 for the visitors, a combined 3.07 expected goals. Seasonally, Maccabi's matches finish over 1.5 goals in 65% of cases and Beitar's in 94% (average ~80%), which Poisson with a mean of 3.07 confirms as ~81% probability for Over 1.5. Over 2.5 is less certain – season rates 53%/81% (average 67%) and Poisson gives ~59% probability, while Over 3.5 is around 37% probability; additionally BTTS are 59% (Maccabi) and 75% (Beitar), which strengthens the signal for Over 1.5.

Statistics show that hosts led at the break in 8 matches (47%) while visitors led in only 6 matches (38%), but visitors have a markedly higher season scoring average of 2.69 versus 1.88 for the hosts. At half-time visitors score on average 1.00 goal, hosts 0.76, and in the second half visitors average 1.69 goals versus 1.12 for hosts, suggesting the visitors’ stronger scoring output after the break. Visitors also have a higher shot conversion rate at 17% versus 12% and a higher recorded win percentage of 69% versus 59% for hosts, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround. Additionally, visitors scored 9 goals in minutes 31–45 compared to 4 for hosts and 15 goals in 76–90' versus 12 for hosts, indicating their ability to change the course of the match later on. Therefore the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time with the visitors winning the match (1/2).