Maghreb Fès vs CR Khemis Zemamra: match statistics

Maghreb Fès have been clearly more effective over their last five matches, scoring 8 goals compared with CR Khemis Zemamra’s 3. The hosts remain unbeaten during this run, recording 3 wins and 2 draws for an average of 2.2 points per match. The Fès side have conceded just 2 goals in five games, while the visitors have allowed 4. CR Khemis Zemamra have not won any of their last five matches and have drawn four of them, highlighting their limited ability to turn tight games in their favor. The advantage in form, attacking output and defensive solidity points to a home win, although the visitors’ high number of draws increases the likelihood of a closely contested result.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Maghreb Fès have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. CR Khemis Zemamra have scored only 3 goals during this period, for a low average of 0.6 goals per match, despite recording an xG of 1.61. The hosts are in significantly better form, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while the visitors have failed to win any of their five matches, drawing four of them. BTTS in the last five matches stood at 40% for Maghreb and 60% for Khemis Zemamra, but the hosts’ very solid defense and the visitors’ poor finishing increase the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. Maghreb have averaged 1.6 goals per match, so the most likely scenario is the visitors failing to score rather than a goalless draw.

The data from the last five matches points to the visitors’ limited attacking potential: they have scored only 3 goals, averaging 0.6 per game, despite an xG of 1.61. Maghreb Fès are enjoying an excellent defensive run, conceding just 2 goals in five appearances, an average of 0.4, which should further limit the visitors’ ability to convert their chances. The hosts have averaged 1.6 goals, but only 40% of their recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, while none of CR Khemis Zemamra’s five matches finished above this line. The projected total of 2.00 goals primarily suggests a low probability of scenarios featuring four or more goals. Therefore, the best option is Under 3.5 goals, supported by both the hosts’ effective defense and the visitors’ weak recent goal production.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Maghreb Fès victory at full-time, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while CR Khemis Zemamra were level in as many as 80%. Before the break, Maghreb Fès averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded none, whereas the visitors scored only 0.2 goals and conceded 0.4. After the interval, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals—twice as many as their opponents, who recorded 0.4 goals in the second half. The current form further confirms Maghreb Fès’ advantage: they won 60% of their recent matches and lost none, while Khemis Zemamra failed to win, drawing 80% of their games.