Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: match statistics
Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mainz 05 play Bayern München in Bundesliga (Germany). The match date is 25 April 2026 at 15:30. Final score: 3:4.
Current form
Mainz 05: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Bayern München: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mainz 05 scores 1.29 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Bayern München scores 3.59 and concedes 1.06. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mainz 05 62%, Bayern München 65%. Over 2.5: Mainz 05 53%, Bayern München 94%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Bayern München has higher xG: 2.32 vs 1.42. Mainz 05: 12.1 shots per match, Bayern München: 19.2.
Match halves
Mainz 05: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.62. Bayern München: half-time lead 59%, second-half goals 2.12.
Goals by minute
Mainz 05: 31-45+ (10 goals). Bayern München: 76-90+ (35 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Bayern (1st) has a clear advantage over Mainz (10th): this season Bayern have 25 wins and 109 goals, while Mainz have 8 wins and 36 goals. In their last 5 matches Bayern scored 17 goals (3.4 per match) and recorded 5 wins; Mainz scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and have a 2-1-2 record with 1.4 points per game. Offensively Bayern averages 8.2 shots on target and 17.27 shots per game with a 19% conversion rate, translating to 3.27 away goals (season), whereas Mainz at home average 3.93 shots on target, 13.07 shots and 1.13 goals with 9% efficiency and FTS 40%. Defensively Mainz concede 1.2 goals per home game with an average xG against of 1.32, while Bayern concede 0.93 goals away with xG against 1.15 and xG for 2.15; Bayern also have 40% clean sheets on the road versus Mainz’s 13% at home. Considering the gap in goals scored (109 vs 36), possession advantage (67% vs 47%), superior efficiency and form (5 wins in last 5 vs 2 wins for Mainz), I predict an away victory and assess their chances at around 75%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bayern München is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Mainz 05 · 2.6 pts / match - Bayern München
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bayern München is 178% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 3.59 goals / match - Bayern München
Bayern München is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 1.06 goals / match - Bayern München
Mainz 05 scores in 71% of matches (24 of 34 matches), while Bayern München keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Bayern München scores in 100% of matches (34 of 34 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 12% (4 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Mainz 05
Over / Under — Bayern München
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bayern München is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Mainz 05 · 2.03 pts / match - Bayern München
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bayern München - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 59% of matches and wins 82%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (35 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +24 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mainz 05
Bayern München
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.85 | 3.24 | ▲ 4.65 |
| Both teams scored | • 62% | 62% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 64% | ▲ 94% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 21% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 77% | ▲ 91% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 86% | ▲ 97% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mainz 05 0 - 1 - 0 Bayern München. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 3:4 Bayern München. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Mainz 05 score 1.29 goals per game on average and Bayern München 3.59. The Bundesliga average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Mainz 05's matches and 65% of Bayern München's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Bayern München in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Bayern München 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.