Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin: match statistics
Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mainz 05 played against Union Berlin in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on May 10, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
Mainz 05 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Union Berlin has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Mainz 05 scores 1.28 goals per game and allows 1.56. Union Berlin scores 1.16 and allows 1.78. Games in this league average 3.22 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 63% of Mainz 05's games and 63% of Union Berlin's. The Over 2.5 rates are 53% and 59%, compared with league averages of 62% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mainz 05 has the higher season xG average, 1.40 to 1.35 per game. Mainz 05 takes 11.9 shots per game, while Union Berlin takes 12.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Mainz 05 leads at halftime in 34% of its games and scores 0.63 goals per game after halftime. Union Berlin leads at halftime in 19% and scores 0.78 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mainz 05's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (9 goals). For Union Berlin, it is minutes 76-90+ (14 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.22 goals. Both teams score in 62% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mainz holds an edge in the quality of attacking situations: average xG for the hosts is 1.55 versus Union’s 1.25 xG away, and average shots on target are 4.19 vs 3.13, translating into higher goal-threat activity. The hosts concede on average 1.38 goals at home, while Union concede 1.94 on the road and suffer as many as 63% losses away compared to 44% for Mainz at home. The last 5 matches, however, reveal form weakness for both sides — both teams have scored 6 and conceded 11, with point returns of just 0.8 pts for Mainz and 0.4 pts for Union. Additionally, Mainz averages 13.56 shots at home vs 11.44 for Union away and has a slightly better conversion rate of 9% vs 8%, although they fail to score more often (38% of matches without a goal vs 31% for Union), which may limit the margin of victory. Therefore, I expect a narrow home win or a low-scoring draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Mainz has BTTS in 75% of matches this season, Union in 50%, and the league average is 62%, which provides an initial signal in favor of the "both teams to score" scenario. In the last 5 matches Union had BTTS in 100% and Mainz in 60%, and both teams concede on average 2.2 goals in those five games, indicating leaky defenses. Mainz has a seasonal xG of 1.45 (last 5: 1.65) and 4.06 shots on target per match, Union has a seasonal xG of 1.25 (last 5: 1.64) and concedes on average 1.62 xG, so both teams create chances and have realistic opportunities to score. Although Union have 31% of matches without a goal this season, their form in the last 5 (100% BTTS) reduces that factor as a dominant argument against BTTS. Considering 75% vs 50% BTTS, Union's 100% BTTS in the last 5, low 19% clean sheets for both teams and clear xG/shots indicators from Mainz, I assign 72% to "BTTS - Yes" and 28% to "No Goal" as the most likely choice.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on average xG (Mainz attack xG 1.45 and xG conceded 1.62; Union attack xG 1.25 and xG conceded 1.29) yields 1.54 expected goals for Mainz and 1.27 for Union, totaling 2.81 goals. Seasonal indicators support a high-scoring outcome: Mainz have 81% of matches over 1.5 goals, Union 69%, while over0.5 occurs in 88% of Mainz matches and 100% of Union matches, increasing the likelihood of a result above 1.5. Mainz generate more chances (avg. 13.0 shots and 4.06 on target with an 11% conversion), whereas Union average 11.44 shots and 3.13 on target with 8% efficiency, which favors at least a few home goals. The 2.5 line is also reasonable (season over2.5: Mainz 69%, Union 50%; last 5 matches over2.5: Mainz 60%, Union 80%), hence an estimated probability for over 2.5 around 66%. The 3.5 line is less justified (season over3.5 44% for both and combined expected xG 2.81 < 3.5), therefore I recommend over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mainz 05 appears to have the advantage at half-time and at full-time: the home side average 0.50 goals by the break versus 0.25 for Union (0.5 vs 0.25) and lead at the break in 25% of matches compared to 13% for the visitors (25.0% vs 13.0%). In the last 5 games Mainz have led at the break in 40% versus 0% for Union and average 1.0 goals by half-time compared to 0.0 (40.0% vs 0.0; 1.0 vs 0.0), which is a strong short-term signal in favor of the hosts. The full-time outcome is further supported by higher xG for Mainz (1.45 vs 1.25), lower expected xG conceded (1.29 vs 1.62) and a higher home points average (1.19 vs 0.88), so maintaining the lead is realistic. Additionally, Mainz’s first half ends with goals in 75% of cases versus 69% for Union, and Union have not led at half-time in their last 5 matches (0%), therefore the strongest scenario is HT/FT = 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mainz 05 is 250% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Mainz 05 · 0.4 pts / game - Union Berlin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mainz 05 is 10% better for: goals scored per game.
1.28 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.16 goals / game - Union Berlin
Mainz 05 is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.56 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.78 goals / game - Union Berlin
Mainz 05 scores in 69% of games (22 of 32 meczów), while Union Berlin keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 meczów).
Union Berlin scores in 75% of games (24 of 32 meczów), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 9% (3 of 32 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Union Berlin
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mainz 05 is 57% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / game - Mainz 05 · 0.88 pts / game - Union Berlin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 34% of games and wins 28%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Union Berlin - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -7 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mainz 05
Union Berlin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.84 | 3.22 | ▼ 2.94 |
| Both teams scored | • 63% | 62% | • 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 64% | ▼ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 21% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 77% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 85% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Mainz 05's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Union Berlin. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 1:3 Union Berlin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Mainz 05 score 1.28 goals per game on average and Union Berlin 1.16. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Mainz 05's matches and 63% of Union Berlin's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Union Berlin 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The statistical background for Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.