Mardin BB vs BB Bodrumspor: match statistics

Mardin BB remain unbeaten after five matchdays, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws and a goal difference of 8:3, while BB Bodrumspor have failed to win any of their four league matches. The hosts create significantly more danger at home, averaging 17.5 shots and 6 on target per game, with an xG of 1.93 compared to 1.20 for the visitors away from home. Mardin BB concede just 0.5 goals per home match, whereas Bodrumspor have scored only 2 goals in their last five games and lost twice. The visitors can, however, limit the damage on the road, with both of their away matches ending in draws, making a stalemate a realistic alternative. Nevertheless, the superior quality of chances created and more consistent form point towards Mardin BB securing their first home win.

The strongest signal against BTTS comes from the visitors’ attack: BB Bodrumspor have averaged just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with both goals scored across only five fixtures in total during this period. Mardin BB have conceded just 0.6 goals per match in this run and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their season matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. BTTS occurred in only 20% of Bodrumspor’s last five matches and in 40% of Mardin BB’s fixtures, compared with the league average of 51%. The hosts are in better scoring form, averaging 1.6 goals and an xG of 1.60 per match across their last five outings, so a result featuring a goal for them but no goal for one of the sides is more likely. Therefore, the BTTS - No pick does not refer exclusively to a goalless draw, but primarily to scenarios such as a 1:0 or 2:0 win for Mardin BB.

Mardin BB have averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded just 0.6 over their last 5 matches, while BB Bodrumspor have managed only 0.4 goals per game. During this period, the visitors had at least 3 goals in just 20% of their matches, compared with 40% for the hosts. Mardin BB’s attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.60, whereas Bodrumspor created chances worth only 1.07 xG, limiting the prospects of an open, high-scoring game. The hosts can exploit their opponents’ weaker defense, with the visitors’ latest xG conceded standing at 1.85, but their solid defensive record should restrict Bodrumspor. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.18 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals.

Mardin BB are in clearly better form: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while BB Bodrumspor managed only 0.4 goals per game and allowed 1.2. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of these matches and did not trail at half-time in any of them. By contrast, the visitors never went into the interval with a lead and were behind after 45 minutes in 40% of cases. Mardin averaged 1.0 goal scored before half-time and conceded none, whereas Bodrumspor failed to score in this period and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the overall results: they collected 1.8 points per match during the latest run, compared with Bodrumspor’s 0.6. The most likely scenario is therefore that Mardin BB will take the lead before half-time and hold it until the final whistle, making the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the most probable.