Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts: match statistics

JDFS Alberts are higher in the table and, above all, are showing significantly better current form: they are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Mārupe have won only 2 of their 5 games. The visitors have scored 10 goals and conceded just 4 during this period, whereas the hosts have a record of 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home, JDFS Alberts average 2.00 goals per match with an xG of 1.66, surpassing Mārupe’s home figures of 1.78 goals and an xG of 1.46. The hosts’ defense is vulnerable, as they concede an average of 1.78 goals per home game and lose 56% of their matches at home. Mārupe may pose an attacking threat, given that JDFS Alberts have kept a clean sheet in none of their away matches, but the visitors’ superior form and chance quality point towards an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is the fact that JDFS Alberts have recorded both teams scoring in 100% of their matches this season, while both teams found the net in 80% of their last five fixtures. Mārupe average 2.13 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.78, and JDFS Alberts have yet to keep a single clean sheet. The hosts have also been defensively vulnerable in their current form, conceding 2.2 goals per game across their last five matches, with an xG against them of 1.70. JDFS Alberts score an average of 2.00 goals and create 1.66 xG per match, so they should be able to exploit the opponent’s recent defensive weaknesses. The risk to the pick comes from Mārupe keeping a clean sheet in 38% of their matches this season; however, the current goal-scoring indicators more clearly support a scenario in which both teams score.

Mārupe averages 2.13 goals per match this season, while JDFS Alberts scores 2.00, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The 1.5 line has been surpassed in 88% of Mārupe’s matches and in all of JDFS Alberts’ games, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.59 goals. The hosts have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match across their last five appearances, with both teams scoring in 80% of the matches during that period. Mārupe generates an average of 1.95 xG, while Alberts records 1.66 xG, making the combined projection of 3.20 goals justified. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as it requires only two goals despite both teams’ highly consistent data for this line.

The strongest signal points to JDFS Alberts leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: in their last five matches, the visitors were ahead at half-time in 50% of games, while Mārupe failed to lead at the break on every occasion and were trailing in 60% of them. Current form also favors the visitors, who have averaged 2.0 goals scored, just 0.8 conceded, and 2.2 points per match across their last five outings, compared with Mārupe’s averages of 1.4 goals scored, 2.2 conceded, and 1.2 points. After the break, JDFS Alberts have averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last five appearances, whereas the hosts have conceded as many as 1.2 goals per match in this period. Mārupe do have the stronger home record over the full season, with a 63% win rate, but their poor current form and the visitors’ advantage in the first halves make the 2/2 outcome the most likely HT/FT scenario.