Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK: match statistics

Leevon / PPK sit 4th, while Mārupe are sixth, and the visitors’ overall season record stands at 9 wins and just 3 defeats, compared with 7 wins and 7 losses for the hosts. The visitors are also in better recent form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, whereas Mārupe suffered 3 defeats and conceded as many as 11 goals. Away from home, Leevon / PPK create more chances, averaging 13.57 shots and 5.57 on target per match, with an xG of 1.74; at home, Mārupe average 10.5 shots, 4.67 on target and an xG of 1.47. Although the hosts score an average of 2 goals at home, they also concede 2 per match and have lost 57% of their home games, which significantly undermines their stability. The visitors’ defense looks more solid, as they concede an average of 1.29 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 43% of matches. Therefore, Leevon / PPK hold a slight advantage.

Mārupe record BTTS in 88% of their matches, while Leevon / PPK do so in 57%, compared with a league average of 63%—a clear indicator in favor of both teams scoring. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches and conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game across their last five fixtures. In their last five appearances, Leevon / PPK have recorded a perfect 100% rate of matches featuring goals from both teams, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 2.0. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.62 for Mārupe and 1.74 for the visitors, while both defenses allow 1.44 and 1.45 xG respectively. The main risk to the pick is Leevon / PPK’s 43% clean-sheet rate across the season; however, the visitors’ weaker recent defensive record and the hosts’ low clean-sheet percentage make BTTS - Yes more likely.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Mārupe went over 1.5 goals in 88% of matches, while Leevon / PPK did so in 71%. Recent form further raises expectations, as the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals across their last five matches, while the visitors scored 1.8, with both teams combining for 15 goals scored and 21 conceded. The visitors average 1.74 xG and register 5.57 shots on target per match, while Mārupe keep a clean sheet in just 13% of their games. The Over 1.5 goals line is the safest choice, as even with moderate finishing efficiency, the projected total of 3.15 goals gives it a clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Mārupe win, as Leevon / PPK were level at the break in 86% of their matches, compared with 38% for Mārupe. The opening phase could be cautious: the hosts score an average of just 0.63 goals before half-time, while the visitors average 0.57, against an average of 1.50 first-half goals in Mārupe matches. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they score an average of 1.38 goals and concede just 0.38, while Leevon / PPK score only 0.71 goals in this period. Mārupe also have the stronger season record, winning 75% of their matches compared with the visitors’ 43%, while averaging 2.00 goals against the visitors’ 1.29. The visitors’ recent form is better, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, which is why the half-time draw remains a safer option than the hosts leading after 45 minutes.