Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata: match statistics

Albirex Niigata are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored a total of 8 goals during that run, while Matsumoto Yamaga have failed to win any of their five games (4 draws and 1 defeat). The visitors are also more effective away from home, winning 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 1 per game. At home, Matsumoto create plenty of chances, recording 23 shots, 13 shots on target and an xG of 2.95, but they also allow opponents an xG of 2.14 and concede an average of 3 goals. Albirex have better defensive control away from home, with average xG conceded standing at 1.33, compared with the significantly higher figure recorded by the hosts. Matsumoto should pose a threat in front of goal, but Albirex Niigata’s stronger form and more favourable overall balance make them the more likely winners.

The BTTS - Yes signal is supported by the recent results: Matsumoto has recorded BTTS in 60% of its last five matches, identical to Albirex. During this period, the home side has scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 1.4, while the visitors have scored 1.6 goals but allowed opponents 1.8. The xG figures also suggest chances for both teams, with Matsumoto creating an average of 1.68 xG and Albirex 1.44 xG, while conceding 1.50 and 1.75 xG respectively. In the season data, Albirex has seen goals scored by both teams in 100% of its matches and averages 2.0 goals scored, although the small sample size and the league-wide BTTS rate of 36% limit confidence in the pick. Nevertheless, the weaker defensive performances of both teams across their last five outings slightly increase the probability of a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Data from the last five matches points to a game with goal-scoring potential: Matsumoto averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Albirex averaged 1.6 and 1.8 goals, respectively. The combined average xG figures from this period are high for both sides, with the hosts creating chances worth 1.68 xG and the visitors 1.44 xG, while averaging 1.50 and 1.75 xG allowed defensively. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Matsumoto’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Albirex’s, while both teams scored in 60% of these fixtures. Additionally, in the available cup sample, Albirex averaged 20 shots, including 8 on target, scored 2 goals and conceded 1, supporting a scenario of at least two goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 3.00 goals provide a clear margin above this line, despite the limited size of part of the season data.

Albirex Niigata have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals, while Matsumoto Yamaga have failed to win any of their last five games and have averaged just 0.8 points per match. A draw at half-time is the most logical outcome, as Matsumoto were level at the break in 80% of their recent matches, compared with 60% for Albirex; both teams scored only 0.4 and 0.6 goals per game respectively during this phase. After the break, the visitors’ advantage should grow: Albirex averaged 1.0 goal in second halves, while their matches produced an average of 2.2 goals after half-time, compared with 1.4 in the hosts’ games. Matsumoto conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match in their last five, whereas despite conceding 1.8 goals, Albirex have a considerably stronger results profile. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by an away win is the strongest-supported outcome.