Mbarara City vs SC Villa: match statistics

SC Villa sit 4th in the table while Mbarara City are 13th; Villa have 14 wins this season versus Mbarara's 5 and 35 goals scored against 22, which clearly favors the visitors. Villa's biggest edge is defensively: the visitors have conceded just 14 goals all season and average 0.75 goals conceded away, versus Mbarara's 40 conceded and 1.08 conceded at home; Villa also record 50% clean sheets on the road compared to Mbarara's 23% at home. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 6 goals each, but Villa have conceded only 3 versus Mbarara's 6, and Villa average 1.6 points per game compared to Mbarara's 1.4, indicating better form from the visitors. Mbarara at home generate higher xG (1.49) and more shots on target (3.55 vs 2.67), however they convert that into just 0.85 goals on xG 1.49, showing a finishing efficiency problem. Therefore I forecast an SC Villa win and assign 55% probability to the visitors, 25% to a draw and 20% to the home win.

Seasonal data strongly favor No BTTS: Mbarara has 64% clean sheets, SC Villa 50%, and seasonal BTTS rates are only 36% (Mbarara) and 25% (SC Villa) against a league average of 37%. Mbarara City averages 1.71 goals scored with xG 1.46 and concedes just 0.36 goals per match, while SC Villa has season figures of 0.92 scored and 0.75 conceded with xG 1.33, indicating a defensive edge for the hosts. The hosts create more chances (11.0 shots and 4.38 on target vs 9.75 and 2.67 for the visitors) and are more efficient in conversion (16% vs 9%), so Mbarara is more likely to generate and potentially decide the outcome. Short-term form is mixed: the hosts’ last 5 matches show 60% BTTS and 1.2 goals conceded on average, while the visitors show 20% BTTS and 0.6 conceded, but these are weaker signals compared to the dominant seasonal metrics. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is No for BTTS, estimated at 70% vs 30% for Yes.

The xG-based model projects expected goals: Mbarara City 1.40 (1.46 xG for vs 1.34 xG conceded by SC Villa), SC Villa 1.23 (1.33 xG for vs 1.13 xG conceded by Mbarara), totaling 2.63 goals. Mbarara averages 11.0 shots and 4.38 on target with a 16% conversion rate, while SC Villa averages 9.75 shots and 2.67 on target with a 9% conversion rate, which increases the number of clear chances and supports at least two goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.63 yields ~74% probability for Over 1.5 goals and ~49% for Over 2.5 goals; however, seasonal Over2.5 rates are lower (36% for Mbarara and 25% for SC Villa), so I adjusted the Over 2.5 probability to approximately 42%. Additionally, Mbarara has 64% clean sheets, and BTTS is 36% for home and 25% for away, which reduces the likelihood of a very high-scoring game—seasonal Over3.5 are 14% and 0%; accounting for these figures I estimate Over 3.5 at about 18%. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over ~74% vs under ~26%), while the 2.5 line is too balanced (over ~42% / under ~58%), and Over 3.5 remains unlikely.

Mbarara City at home scores an average of 1.71 goals per match versus 0.92 for SC Villa, with xG of 1.46 for the hosts versus 1.33 for the visitors and a lower average of goals conceded 0.36 vs 0.75, which gives the hosts a clear advantage. At half-time the hosts lead in 38% of matches and are level in 54%, while conceding only 0.08 goals on average before the break and keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 92% of games, so a draw or a narrow host lead at the interval is most likely. In second halves Mbarara score on average 1.08 goals versus 0.42 for SC Villa and win the second half in 62% of cases compared to 17% for the visitors, which increases the chance of turning a draw into a home win. Based on this I assign the scenario Half-Time draw / Full-Time Mbarara win (X/1) 32% and Half-Time host lead / Full-Time host win (1/1) 29%. Scenarios starting with SC Villa leading are unlikely, as the hosts are behind at half-time in only 8% of matches, so I limit the 2/X and 2/2 variants to a combined 7%.