MC Alger vs Oued Akbou: match statistics

MC Alger is the clear favorite: the hosts have a 92% home win rate this season and 0% defeats, kept a clean sheet in 67% of home matches and concede just 0.42 goals per home game on average. Oued Akbou win only 23% of away matches, register 38% away defeats and concede 1.31 goals per away game, placing them under significant defensive pressure from the hosts. Offensively MC Alger averages 12.33 shots per home game with 5.67 on target, translating to 1.58 goals and xG 1.60; Oued Akbou manage only 6.69 shots and 2.85 on target away, scoring 1.15 goals on average with xG 0.96, although their conversion rate is higher (17% vs 13%). In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 8 goals (3 wins, 2 losses, 1.8 points per game), while the visitors scored 4 goals (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 points per game), confirming a slight form advantage for MC Alger. Considering the dominance in number and quality of chances (12.33 vs 6.69 shots; xG 1.60 vs 0.96), the low average goals conceded at home (0.42) and their lower share of matches without scoring (8% vs 23% for the visitors), I forecast a MC Alger victory.

I back BTTS - Yes with a 67% probability (33% for No). MC Alger generates xG 1.47 and averages 11.46 shots with 4.62 on target per match, while Oued Akbou’s defense concedes xG against 1.29 and on the season allows 1.31 goals, so the home side has realistic scoring chances. Oued Akbou posts xG 0.96 and scores 1.15 goals per season, and MC Alger’s defense concedes xG against 1.05 and in the last 5 matches MC Alger have conceded an average of 1.2 goals (6 goals conceded), giving the visitors opportunities to score. Additionally, Oued Akbou records BTTS 62% versus MC Alger 46%, and the last 5 matches show BTTS 40% for both teams, which together favors the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering the higher xG and shot volume of the hosts and the visitors’ efficiency (conversion 17% vs 11%), the BTTS - Yes outcome appears statistically stronger.

I project a total of approximately 2.39 goals (MC Alger ~1.38 xG, Oued Akbou ~1.01 xG), calculated as the average of team xG and opponent xG (1.47 and 1.29 for the home side; 0.96 and 1.05 for the away side). MC Alger scores on average 1.31 and concedes 0.69 per match, with 4.62 shots on target and 11.46 total shots, while Oued Akbou scores 1.15 and concedes 1.31 with 2.85 shots on target and 6.69 total shots. Seasonal percentages show home matches exceed 2.5 goals in 23% of cases and away matches in 46%; the league averages 2.17 goals per game, so the projected 2.39 sits just below the 2.5 threshold. A Poisson model on this projection yields about a 69% probability for Over 1.5 (31% Under 1.5), about 43% for Over 2.5 (57% Under 2.5) and only about 22% for Over 3.5 (78% Under 3.5). Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Under 2.5 — the home side’s low concession rate of 0.69 and the visitors’ limited offense (xG 0.96 and 6.69 shots) reduce the likelihood of crossing the 2.5 line.

MC Alger is the clear favorite: at home they win 69% of matches and accumulate an average of 2.31 points, with an xG of 1.47 versus Oued Akbou’s 0.96 and 4.62 shots on target versus 2.85, giving the hosts an advantage in chance creation. The hosts led at the break in 38% of their matches and were level at half-time in 46% of cases, while the visitors led at the break in only 8% and were level at half-time in 77% of matches, so the most likely half-time outcome is a draw or a minimal lead for the home side. MC Alger score an average of 0.54 goals before the break and generate additional advantage in the second half (on average 1.15 goals in the second half and 0.77 conceded in the second half), therefore the scenario of the home side leading at the break and winning on full-time (1/1) receives the highest probability at 32%, and a half-time draw with a home win (X/1) is almost equally likely at 30%. An away win is assessed as unlikely (12% in total distributed as X/2 6%, 1/2 2% and 2/2 4%), because the visitors concede on average 1.31 goals per match and register only 6.69 shots per match compared with the hosts’ 11.46.