Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema: match statistics
Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mebrat Hayl play Fasil Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 10 May 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Mebrat Hayl: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Fasil Ketema: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mebrat Hayl scores 0.84 and concedes 0.68 goals per match. Fasil Ketema scores 0.74 and concedes 0.74. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mebrat Hayl 37%, Fasil Ketema 26%. Over 2.5: Mebrat Hayl 26%, Fasil Ketema 18%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Fasil Ketema has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.12. Mebrat Hayl: 7.0 shots per match, Fasil Ketema: 7.2.
Match halves
Mebrat Hayl: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.50. Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Mebrat Hayl: 46-60 (9 goals). Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I predict a draw because both teams produce few goals and frequently share points: the hosts draw 47% of home matches, while Fasil draws 60% of away games. Mebrat Hayl averages 0.73 goals scored at home and concedes 0.40 per match with 60% clean sheets, whereas Fasil scores 0.67 away and concedes 0.53 with 67% clean sheets, indicating low scoring. In the last 5 matches Mebrat is 1-1-3 and earns 0.8 points per game, while Fasil is 2-1-2 with 1.4 points per game, so the visitors are marginally better in form. Creation stats are similar: xG 1.03 for the hosts and 1.16 for the visitors, and average shots 6.71 vs 7.36 with conversion rates 12% vs 9%, suggesting a balance between chance quality and finishing. Key advantages are the hosts’ better defense and conversion (0.40 goals conceded per game and 12% conversion) versus the visitors’ higher xG and superior points per game (1.16 xG and 1.4 points per game); therefore I tip a share of the points.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mebrat Hayl | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fasil Ketema is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl · 1.8 pts / match - Fasil Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mebrat Hayl is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
0.84 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl · 0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Mebrat Hayl is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.68 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl · 0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Mebrat Hayl scores in 55% of matches (21 of 38 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 55% (21 of 38 matches).
Fasil Ketema scores in 58% of matches (22 of 38 matches), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 47% (18 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Mebrat Hayl
Over / Under — Fasil Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fasil Ketema is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl · 1.42 pts / match - Fasil Ketema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mebrat Hayl
Fasil Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Mebrat Hayl | Liga | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.53 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 40% | ▼ 26% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 26% | 28% | ▼ 18% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 40% | ▲ 55% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 39% | 56% | ▼ 34% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 63% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mebrat Hayl 0 - 0 - 1 Fasil Ketema. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Mebrat Hayl 3:1 Fasil Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
Mebrat Hayl score 0.84 goals per game on average and Fasil Ketema 0.74. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Mebrat Hayl's matches and 26% of Fasil Ketema's.
What form are Mebrat Hayl and Fasil Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Mebrat Hayl have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Fasil Ketema 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
The statistical background for Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.