Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Nassaji Mazandaran: match statistics

Nassaji Mazandaran sit 10th, while Mes Shahr-e Babak are only 17th, and the hosts are still without a win after 6 rounds, recording 4 draws and 2 defeats. The visitors also boast the better recent record: they have won 2 of their last five matches and averaged 1.4 points per game, compared with 0 wins and 0.8 points for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Away from home, Nassaji concede just 0.67 goals per match, fewer than the hosts concede at home, averaging 1.00 goal allowed, which could prove decisive given both sides’ very limited attacking output. Both teams score 0.67 goals per game in their respective conditions and fail to score in as many as 33% of such matches, so a tight, low-scoring contest is expected, with a slight edge to the visitors.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Mes Shahr-e Babak scores only 0.33 goals per match on average and failed to score in 67% of its games, while Nassaji Mazandaran averages 0.67 goals. Across the season, BTTS occurred in 0% of the hosts’ matches and just 33% of the visitors’ games, compared with a league average of only 28%. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while the hosts concede an average of 1.00 goal and the visitors 0.67, supporting low-scoring outcomes in which at least one team fails to score. The last five appearances also show limited attacking output: Mes averaged 0.8 goals, while Nassaji averaged 0.6, although the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of those matches. In addition, neither team has played a match with over 2.5 goals this season, so a modest scoreline such as 0:0, 1:0 or 0:1 remains the most likely.

This match brings together two teams with very limited attacking output: the hosts score an average of 0.33 goals per match, while the visitors average 0.67. Mes Shahr-e Babak concede 1.00 goal on average, whereas Nassaji Mazandaran concede just 0.67, limiting the projection for the hosts to around 0.62 goals. In the teams’ matches so far, 100% have finished Under 2.5 goals, while this rate stood at 80% and 100%, respectively, across their last five matches. The league is also clearly defensive, averaging just 1.69 goals per match, with only 19% of games producing at least three goals. The strongest selection is Under 2.5 goals, as the expected total of 1.40 and the consistently low-scoring performances of both teams strongly support a scenario with no more than two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nassaji Mazandaran win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their matches and did not trail at the break in any of them. Mes Shahr-e Babak have failed to score before half-time in each of their last five matches, averaging 0.6 goals conceded in that period and trailing at the break in 60% of their appearances. The matches are expected to be tight: both teams average 1.33 goals per game this season, while only 28% of league matches end with both sides scoring. After the break, the hosts have recently been more effective offensively, averaging 0.8 goals compared with 0.2 for the visitors, but Nassaji have a clearly stronger current results record: 1.4 points per match and two wins in their last five fixtures, while Mes have not won any. The visitors’ first-half advantage and the hosts’ poor run make a draw at half-time followed by an away win the most likely single HT/FT outcome.