Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak sits 2nd in the table and wins 67% of home matches, averaging 1.13 goals scored and conceding only 0.4 goals at home, while Niroye Zamini are 13th and win just 14% of away games, scoring 0.71 and conceding 1.07 on the road. Hosts create more high-quality chances: Mes’s home xG is 1.17 versus visitors’ away xG of 0.73, and shots on target are 4.25 per match vs 1.86 for Niroye Zamini. Mes’s defense is a major asset — 60% clean sheets at home and only 0.4 goals conceded per match, whereas the visitors have 29% clean sheets and concede 1.07 away; additionally the visitors fail to score in 50% of away fixtures versus 20% for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Mes averages 1.4 points per game (lwwdl) compared to 1.0 for Niroye Zamini (dldwl), and the season goal differential of 34–24 also favors the hosts. Given higher possession (52% vs 47%), better shot conversion (14% vs 13%) and defensive edge, I tip the home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 20% for Mes Shahr-e Babak and 36% for Niroye Zamini, with a league average of 30%, indicating a generally low probability of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 0% for both sides; hosts average 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in that period, while guests score 0.6 and concede 0.6, so only the home side consistently creates goals in the last 5 fixtures. xG and shot metrics corroborate home advantage: home xG 1.21 vs 0.73 for away, shots per game 8.67 vs 4.57 and shots on target 4.11 vs 1.86, suggesting the visitors have low chances of scoring. Additionally, the home team keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches this season, and in the league 94% of games end with a clean sheet for one side, which combined with low goals-scored values (seasonal 0.93 and 0.71) favors a no-BTTS scenario. Considering the above, I assign BTTS 'no' 78% and 'yes' 22%, selecting 'no' as the most probable bet.

I project 1.25 goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak and 0.70 for Niroye Zamini, totaling 1.95 goals. A Poisson model with λ=1.95 yields probabilities of >1.5 ≈58% (P(≥2)=0.58), >2.5 ≈31% (P(≥3)=0.31) and >3.5 ≈13% (P(≥4)=0.13), so the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (≈87% chance of ≤3 goals). Seasonal metrics corroborate the low frequency of high-scoring games: seasonOver25 is only 20% for the home side and 29% for the visitors, and seasonOver35 only 7% and 14%. The home team has 53% clean sheets and averages 0.93 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match, while the visitors average 0.71 scored and 1.07 conceded; home xG 1.21 versus away xG 0.73 further suggests limited scoring potential. For these reasons I recommend Under 3.5 as the best pick: high confidence (~87%) and consistency with low seasonal shares of 3+ and 4+ goal matches.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The hosts draw at the break in 64% of their matches, the visitors in 54%, with average first-half goals of 0.29 for the hosts and 0.38 for the visitors and 86% clean sheets for the hosts at half-time, strongly favoring a draw in the first half. After the break Mes Shahr-e Babak’s advantage is visible in the numbers: xG 1.21 versus 0.73, an average of 8.67 shots and 4.11 shots on target per match compared to 4.57 and 1.86 for Niroye Zamini, and the hosts have a higher season win rate (33% vs 14%), so they are more likely to engineer a turnaround. Additionally, the hosts scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 3 for the visitors and in the last 5 matches they led at half-time in 40% of games, which supports a low-scoring start and a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome decided in favor of the hosts after the break.