Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Shahrdari Noshahr: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak are clear favorites: they sit 1st with a record of 14 wins, 8 draws and only 2 losses, while Shahrdari Noshahr are 14th with 5 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses. The hosts are in better form — in their last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 1, which translates to 2.6 points per match; the visitors in their last 5 have not won (0 wins), recording 3 draws and 2 losses, scoring only 1 and conceding 5 (0.6 pts/match). In terms of chance quality the hosts’ advantage is clear: at home they average 7.56 shots and 4.56 on target per match with a 16% conversion and xG 1.13, while the visitors away average 5.4 shots, only 1.4 on target, 11% conversion and xG 0.71. Defensively Mes Shahr-e Babak also dominate — they concede 0.5 goals per home match and keep 50% clean sheets, whereas the visitors away concede 1.08 goals per match, have only 17% clean sheets, average 0.42 goals scored and fail to score in 58% of away games; additionally their away win rate is 0%. Based on this I forecast a home win, hence estimated probabilities: 75% home, 15% draw and 10% away.

I assess No BTTS as more likely (78% vs 22%) because the data strongly favors the home defense and the away side’s inefficiency. Mes Shahr-e Babak averages 0.75 goals scored and concedes 0.58 per match this season, with 25 goals for and 11 against and a clean sheet in 50% of games; in the last 5 matches they conceded only 0.2 goals on average (1 goal in five). Shahrdari Noshahr scores only 0.42 goals seasonally, with 14 goals for and 20 against, averaging 1.4 shots on target and xG_for 0.71; in their last 5 matches the visitors scored a total of 1 goal (0.2 avg) with the most recent xG at 0.0. Seasonal BTTS rates are 17% for the home team and 42% for the visitors, while the league shows only 32% BTTS matches and a very high clean sheet rate of 92%, which further argues against both teams scoring. Additionally, the home side generates xG_for 1.41 and 4.33 shots on target on average versus away xG_against_away 1.32 and 1.4 shots on target for the visitors, indicating one-sided chance creation — hence the recommendation: No (No BTTS / No Goal/Goal).

I estimate total goals at approximately 1.83 (home 1.12, away 0.71), derived as a weighted average of xG values and seasonal scoring averages. From xG data: the home side generates 1.41 xG versus xG against the visitors 1.32 (avg ~1.37 for home), while the visitors produce 0.71 xG versus xG against the home 1.10 (avg ~0.90 for away); after incorporating seasonal goals averages of 0.75 and 0.42 we obtain weighted forecasts of 1.12 and 0.71. The home team creates significantly more chances (4.33 shots on target and 9.83 shots per match vs 1.4 and 5.4 for the visitors), but conversion is low (~10–11%) and the league averages only 1.51 goals per match. Historically both teams rarely exceed 2.5 goals – only 8% of home matches and 8% of away matches (92% under 2.5), which strongly favors the under. A Poisson model for a total of 1.83 yields ~55% for Over 1.5, ~28% for Over 2.5 and ~12% for Over 3.5, therefore the best and strongest signal from the data is the under at the 2.5 line.

I predict a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a home win (X/1) as the most likely outcome. The home side scores an average of 0.75 goals per match this season versus 0.42 for the visitors, with xG of 1.41 compared to 0.71 for the away team, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation and quality. Homes rarely lead at the break – 0% leads at halftime this season and an average halftime goals of 0.0 with 83% of matches level at the break, so I expect a goalless or tied half. In the second half the hosts are much more dangerous: an average of 1.17 goals after the break, having scored 4 goals in minutes 46–60 and 3 in 76–90, while visitors concede an average of 0.75 goals after halftime, which favors a turnaround in favor of the home team. Additionally, the hosts average 9.83 shots (4.33 on target) and have an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches, while the visitors have 0% wins in their last 5, hence the strongest signal is X/1.