Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi: match statistics
Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mil Mugan FK played against Neftçi in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The game was played on September 11, 2026. Venue: Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu. Final score: 2:3.
Recent form
Mil Mugan FK has 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Neftçi has 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.25 points per game.
Scoring records
Mil Mugan FK scores 0.75 goals per game and allows 1.25. Neftçi scores 3.00 and allows 0.75. Games in this league average 2.45 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Mil Mugan FK's games and 50% of Neftçi's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 75%, compared with league averages of 36% for BTTS and 45% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Neftçi has the higher season xG average, 1.90 to 1.46 per game. Mil Mugan FK takes 13.3 shots per game, while Neftçi takes 15.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Mil Mugan FK leads at halftime in 0% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Neftçi leads at halftime in 75% and scores 1.25 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mil Mugan FK's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (1 goals). For Neftçi, it is minutes 31-45+ (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premyer Liqası games average 2.45 goals. Both teams score in 36% of games, and 45% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Neftçi lead the table, while Mil Mugan FK sit in 8th place, and the gap in their records so far is clear: the visitors have won 3 of 4 matches, compared with just 1 win for the hosts. Neftçi have scored 12 goals this season and as many as 13 in their last five matches, while conceding just 3 goals across the entire campaign. In their last five appearances, Mil Mugan FK have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 4 goals and conceding 6. The visitors are also in significantly better points-scoring form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, while their average away xG stands at 1.45, compared with 1.32 xG allowed to opponents. Although Neftçi have won only 1 of their 2 away matches so far, their superior attacking quality and current form point to a victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS signal is primarily limited by Mil Mugan FK’s poor current scoring record, with the team averaging only 0.8 goals over its last 5 matches. Neftçi conceded just 0.6 goals per game during this period, while its average xG against stands at 1.18, further increasing the visitors’ chances of keeping a clean sheet. The hosts have failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, while the league-wide BTTS rate is only 36%, with one of the teams keeping a clean sheet in as many as 77% of matches. Neftçi is in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.6 goals and an xG of 2.05 across its last five appearances, but this profile is more conducive to a one-sided victory than to both teams scoring. Although Mil Mugan FK has recently conceded 1.2 goals per match, the most likely scenario remains that at least one team—particularly the hosts—will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest argument for at least two goals comes from Neftçi’s current form: the visitors have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game, while conceding just 0.6. Over the same period, Mil Mugan FK scored only 0.8 goals but conceded 1.2, and their average xG against opponents stands at 1.48, which favors the visitors’ attacking prospects. Neftçi have produced 2.05 xG per match across their last five appearances, while the hosts allow opponents 1.48 xG, resulting in a projected 1.63 goals for the visitors. The Over/Under 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, as the league average is 2.45 goals, whereas Over 1.5 has a clearer edge thanks to the visitors’ attacking quality and a projected total of 2.75 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal points to Neftçi leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the end of the match. In their last five matches, the visitors won 80% of their games, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding only 0.6, while Mil Mugan FK recorded just a 20% win rate during the same period, with averages of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Neftçi were ahead at half-time in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before the break, whereas the hosts failed to lead at half-time in any of those matches and scored only 0.2 goals during this phase. The visitors’ defense also kept a clean sheet before half-time in 80% of these games, while Mil Mugan FK failed to score before the break in 80% of cases. Neftçi’s advantage is also evident after the interval, as they score an average of 1.0 goal while conceding 0.4, supporting the 2/2 HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Neftçi is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 2.25 pts / game - Neftçi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftçi is 300% better for: goals scored per game.
0.75 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 3 goals / game - Neftçi
Neftçi is 67% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.25 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 0.75 goals / game - Neftçi
Mil Mugan FK scores in 75% of games (3 of 4 games), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 games).
Neftçi scores in 75% of games (3 of 4 games), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Neftçi
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftçi is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 2.25 pts / game - Neftçi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 75% of games and wins 75%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 25% | 25% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mil Mugan FK
Neftçi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.00 | 2.45 | ▲ 3.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 36% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 39% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 64% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Mil Mugan FK's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss against Neftçi. Games average 3.67 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 2:3 Neftçi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mil Mugan FK and Neftçi?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Mil Mugan FK won 1, Neftçi won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi?
Mil Mugan FK score 0.75 goals per game on average and Neftçi 3.00. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 50% of Neftçi's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Neftçi in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 1-1-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Neftçi 3-0-1 (2.25 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mil Mugan FK vs Neftçi: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.