Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ: match statistics
Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mil Mugan FK played against Qarabağ in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The game was played on October 11, 2026. Venue: Şəhər stadionu. Final score: 0:2.
Recent form
Mil Mugan FK has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Qarabağ has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Mil Mugan FK scores 1.00 goals per game and allows 1.83. Qarabağ scores 1.80 and allows 0.80. Games in this league average 2.47 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Mil Mugan FK's games and 60% of Qarabağ's. The Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 40%, compared with league averages of 45% for BTTS and 45% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Qarabağ has the higher season xG average, 2.40 to 1.37 per game. Mil Mugan FK takes 12.2 shots per game, while Qarabağ takes 18.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Mil Mugan FK leads at halftime in 0% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Qarabağ leads at halftime in 40% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mil Mugan FK's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (2 goals). For Qarabağ, it is minutes 61-75 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premyer Liqası games average 2.47 goals. Both teams score in 45% of games, and 45% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Qarabağ sit 3rd and have won 4 of their 5 league matches, while ninth-placed Mil Mugan FK have managed just 1 win in 6 games. The hosts have suffered 4 defeats and conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, so their defense could struggle against a side that average 16 shots away from home, compared with the hosts’ 8 shots per game at home. The visitors’ superior chance quality is reflected in their away xG of 2.09, while Mil Mugan FK average 0.96 xG at home. The hosts do average 2 goals scored at home, but they also concede 3, whereas Qarabağ concede just 0.5 goals per game on the road. The visitors score only 1 goal per game away from home on average, leaving room for a draw, but their results and chance creation point towards an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Mil Mugan’s games and 60% of Qarabağ’s, which supports BTTS - Yes. Mil Mugan average 2.33 goals at home, with an xG of 2.61, so even a visiting defense that concedes an average of 0.5 goals away may struggle to keep a clean sheet. The hosts, meanwhile, conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Qarabağ scored an average of 1.4 goals over that period, with an xG of 1.97. The visitors’ 50% clean-sheet rate in away matches adds risk to a BTTS - Yes pick; however, both teams have scored in 67% of Mil Mugan’s home matches and 50% of Qarabağ’s away matches so far. Overall, the attacking data and recent frequency of goals at both ends justify a moderate lean towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
In their last five matches, Mil Mugan averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, while Qarabağ averaged 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, indicating the potential for at least two goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the hosts’ matches during this period, although the figure was 40% for the visitors. Their attacking potential is supported by xG from the last five games: 1.37 for Mil Mugan and 1.97 for Qarabağ. However, caution is warranted with higher goal lines, as none of Qarabağ’s earlier matches included in the statistics finished with Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: a forecast of 2.9 goals gives this line a clearer edge than the riskier Over 2.5 goals bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: in their last five matches, both teams went into the break level in 60% of games, while Qarabağ did not concede a single first-half goal during that period. After the break, the visitors’ form could prove more influential: they have won three of their last five matches, while Mil Mugan have lost four of five. Over this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, compared with 1.4 for Qarabağ, increasing the visitors’ chances of settling the match in the second half. However, the X/2 pick is far from certain: Mil Mugan won all three included home matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals, so a home win remains a realistic alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Qarabağ is 333% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 2.6 pts / game - Qarabağ
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 80% better for: goals scored per game.
1 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 1.8 goals / game - Qarabağ
Qarabağ is 129% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.83 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 0.8 goals / game - Qarabağ
Mil Mugan FK scores in 83% of games (5 of 6 games), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 games).
Qarabağ scores in 100% of games (5 of 5 games), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Qarabağ
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 169% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 1.8 pts / game - Qarabağ
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 80%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mil Mugan FK
Qarabağ
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.83 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 45% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 45% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | • 33% | 33% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 63% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Mil Mugan FK's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses against Qarabağ. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 0:2 Qarabağ. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mil Mugan FK and Qarabağ?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Mil Mugan FK won 0, Qarabağ won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
Mil Mugan FK score 1.00 goals per game on average and Qarabağ 1.80. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 60% of Qarabağ's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Qarabağ in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Qarabağ 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.