Millwall vs Derby County: match statistics
Millwall presents impressive home form with a 56% home win rate and failing to score in only 22% of their matches. The hosts are in excellent disposition, winning four of their last five overall matches (2.4 PPG). Derby County, despite a decent away record (47% win rate), exhibits lower attacking efficiency on the road (xG 1.13 vs Millwall's 1.58 at home) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.29). A key factor is Millwall's advantage in ball possession (48% vs 39%) and their efficiency in home games, where they score an average of 1.44 goals while maintaining a 44% clean sheet rate. The difference in expected goals (xG For 1.58 for Millwall vs xG Against 1.55 for Derby) and the hosts' solid home streak strongly support their victory, although the competitive nature of the Championship and Derby's good form make a draw a realistic scenario.
Millwall vs Derby County: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Millwall played against Derby County in Championship (England). The game was played on March 10, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Millwall has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. Derby County has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Millwall scores 1.39 goals per game and allows 1.14. Derby County scores 1.50 and allows 1.31. Games in this league average 2.59 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 47% of Millwall's games and 69% of Derby County's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 53%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Millwall has the higher season xG average, 1.44 to 1.20 per game. Millwall takes 12.7 shots per game, while Derby County takes 10.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Millwall leads at halftime in 31% of its games and scores 0.83 goals per game after halftime. Derby County leads at halftime in 36% and scores 0.81 after halftime.
When the teams score
Millwall's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (15 goals). For Derby County, it is minutes 31-45+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Championship games average 2.59 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 51% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millwall presents impressive home form with a 56% home win rate and failing to score in only 22% of their matches. The hosts are in excellent disposition, winning four of their last five overall matches (2.4 PPG). Derby County, despite a decent away record (47% win rate), exhibits lower attacking efficiency on the road (xG 1.13 vs Millwall's 1.58 at home) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.29). A key factor is Millwall's advantage in ball possession (48% vs 39%) and their efficiency in home games, where they score an average of 1.44 goals while maintaining a 44% clean sheet rate. The difference in expected goals (xG For 1.58 for Millwall vs xG Against 1.55 for Derby) and the hosts' solid home streak strongly support their victory, although the competitive nature of the Championship and Derby's good form make a draw a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Millwall | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Millwall is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - Millwall · 1.8 pts / game - Derby County
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Derby County is 8% better for: goals scored per game.
1.39 goals / game - Millwall · 1.5 goals / game - Derby County
Millwall is 15% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.14 goals / game - Millwall · 1.31 goals / game - Derby County
Millwall scores in 81% of games (29 of 36 meczów), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 22% (8 of 36 meczów).
Derby County scores in 92% of games (33 of 36 meczów), while Millwall keeps a clean sheet in 39% (14 of 36 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millwall
Over / Under - Derby County
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millwall - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 53%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 36% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Millwall
Derby County
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Millwall | Liga | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.53 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▲ 69% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 25% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 78% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Millwall's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Derby County. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Millwall vs Derby County?
The Championship match finished Millwall 1:0 Derby County. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall score 1.39 goals per game on average and Derby County 1.50. The Championship average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Millwall's matches and 69% of Derby County's.
What form are Millwall and Derby County in?
Over the last 5 games Millwall have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Derby County 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millwall vs Derby County?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.