Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia: match statistics

Mineros de Zacatecas remain unbeaten at home, winning 75% of their matches, while averaging an impressive 3.25 goals per game at their own stadium from 13 shots and 5.5 shots on target. Their conversion rate stands at 25%, whereas Morelia score just once per away match on average and have failed to score in 33% of such games. The visitors are, however, in excellent overall form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and a record of 12 goals scored and 6 conceded during that span. Morelia also defend solidly away from home, conceding 0.67 goals per match, but their xG against is 1.38, suggesting that the hosts should be able to create enough chances. Given Mineros’ attacking advantage at home and 56% possession, a narrow home victory is the most likely outcome.

Mineros de Zacatecas average 3.25 goals scored at home and have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.75 goals, which clearly opens the door for Morelia to score. Morelia have averaged 2.4 goals over their last five matches, with an xG of 1.83, while the hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.59 and conceded 2.0 goals per game during this period. The hosts have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their home matches so far, while the BTTS rates across the last five appearances of both teams stand at 60% and 80%, respectively. The main argument against this pick is Morelia’s stronger season-long defense, conceding just 0.67 goals away from home and keeping a clean sheet in 33% of matches. However, Mineros create plenty of chances, posting 1.93 xG and 9.25 shots on target per game. The most likely scenario is therefore at least one goal for each team, making BTTS - Yes the preferred selection.

Mineros have been involved in home matches averaging 5.00 goals, scoring 3.25 goals per game and failing to keep a clean sheet so far. Morelia have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last five matches, while both teams recorded at least three goals in 80% of their games during this period. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.93 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors, with Mineros allowing opponents 1.05 xG. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as the hosts have cleared it in 100% of their home matches, while the projected total of 3.05 goals provides a clear margin of safety.

Morelia have a clearer first-half profile: they led at the break in 67% of matches, while Mineros were trailing after 45 minutes in 50%. The visitors have not conceded a single goal before half-time and allow an average of 0.0 goals in this phase, whereas the hosts score just 0.75 goals per match before the break. After half-time, however, the pattern strongly favors Mineros, who score an average of 2.5 goals, have won 75% of second halves and boast a +7 goal difference in them. Morelia score only 0.33 goals per match after the break, have not won a single second half and failed to score in that phase in 67% of matches. The most likely scenario is therefore that Morelia will lead at the break, but Mineros will use their significantly greater attacking strength after half-time to complete a turnaround.