Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics

Phoenix Rising sit 14th, while Monterey Bay are only 23rd, with the visitors’ season record standing at 7 wins and 7 defeats compared to the hosts’ mere 4 wins and 14 losses. Recent form clearly favors Phoenix: they have scored 8 goals, conceded 6, and recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, whereas Monterey have failed to win any of their last five, scoring 5 goals and conceding 11. The hosts create more quality chances at home, averaging 1.52 xG compared to Phoenix’s 1.07 away from home, and also register 4.64 shots on target per match versus 2.27 for their opponents. However, both teams concede an average of 1.45 goals in their respective home and away matches, meaning Monterey have a realistic chance of finding the net. The visitors’ advantage is primarily based on a much more stable trend in recent weeks, although Phoenix’s high 36% away draw rate means a share of the points remains highly probable.

The signal for both teams to score is reinforced by their current form: in their last 5 matches, both Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising recorded BTTS in 80% of games. During this period, Monterey Bay conceded an average of 2.2 goals, with an xG against of 1.85, clearly increasing Phoenix’s chances of finding the net. The visitors have recently averaged 1.6 goals per match, while their xG stood at 1.19, whereas the hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 27% of their matches this season. Monterey Bay should also contribute a goal, as they average 1.82 goals at home, create 1.84 xG and register 6.36 shots on target per match, with only 18% of games ending without scoring. The season BTTS percentages—64% for the hosts and 55% for the visitors—are above the league average of 53%, making the "BTTS - Yes" outcome more likely.

Monterey Bay have strong attacking numbers at home: they average 1.82 goals, generate 1.84 xG, and record 6.36 shots on target per match, while Phoenix concede 1.45 goals and 1.38 xG away from home. The visitors themselves average only 1.00 goal per game this season, but their last five matches have produced 1.60 goals per game, while Monterey Bay have conceded as many as 2.20 goals per match over the same period. The 1.5 line has been covered in 91% of the hosts’ matches and 82% of Phoenix’s games, representing a significantly stronger signal than the more evenly balanced results for the 2.5 line, at 55% and 45%, respectively. In addition, both teams have seen both sides score in 80% of their last five matches, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The projected total of 2.85 goals gives the strongest betting edge to Over 1.5 goals, while the 3.5 line remains too high given that 64% and 82% of their matches this season have finished below it, respectively.

The Half-Time/Full-Time draw is strongly supported by data from both sides: Monterey Bay were level at the break in 45% of their matches, while Phoenix Rising recorded a half-time draw in 55%. The hosts have been clearly stronger over the course of the season, averaging 1.82 goals with an xG of 1.84, compared with Phoenix’s 1.00 goals and 1.07 xG. Recent form, however, reverses this pattern: Monterey Bay have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and collected only 0.4 points per game over that run, whereas Phoenix have earned 1.6 points per game and lost just once. The visitors have looked particularly strong after the break in their last five appearances, conceding only 0.2 goals on average, while Monterey Bay conceded as many as 1.4. A draw at half-time followed by a Phoenix win at full-time is therefore the most likely scenario, although the hosts’ advantage in the season-long data limits confidence in this selection.