Monterrey vs Atlético San Luis: match statistics

Monterrey are clear favorites, having won both of their home matches so far while scoring an average of 4.5 goals per game from 23.5 shots and 11.5 shots on target. The hosts create high-quality chances, as reflected by their home xG of 2.60, while Atlético San Luis allow opponents an away xG of 2.16 and concede an average of 2.5 goals. The visitors’ form is clearly poor: they have failed to win any of their last five matches, collecting just 2 points and conceding as many as 14 goals. Atlético San Luis score an average of just 1 goal away from home and fail to score in 50% of such matches, which, combined with their xG against Monterrey of only 0.85, further limits their chances. Monterrey’s superior efficiency, average possession of 60%, and current run of 4 wins in 5 matches all point to a convincing home victory.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened by their current form: BTTS landed in 80% of Monterrey’s and Atlético San Luis’ last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 60%. Monterrey averaged 2.4 goals during this period, while San Luis averaged 1.2, with the visitors conceding as many as 2.8 goals per match. San Luis’ defense has failed to keep a clean sheet even once this season and concedes an average of 2.5 goals, while Monterrey creates an average of 1.51 xG. However, the visitors have a genuine chance of scoring at least once, as their average xG stands at 1.25 and the hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals per match. The biggest risk to BTTS - Yes is Monterrey’s 33% clean-sheet rate, but San Luis’ very weak defense clearly increases the likelihood of an open match and a Goal/Goal scenario.

Monterrey are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.4 goals over their last five matches, with an xG of 2.03. During the same period, Atlético San Luis conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game, while their average xG conceded to opponents stands at 1.63, clearly supporting the prospect of goals for the home side. Both teams recorded at least 3 goals in 80% of their last five matches, while games in which both teams scored also accounted for 80%. San Luis have failed to keep a clean sheet this season and concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home, while Monterrey register 14.67 shots per match at home. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Monterrey’s attacking advantage and the visitors’ defensive weakness make at least two goals highly likely.

Monterrey are in clearly superior form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.4 goals, while Atlético San Luis have failed to win any of their last five games and conceded an average of 2.8 goals. The home side’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 1.51 compared with the visitors’ 1.25, while their opponents allow an xG as high as 2.16. In the first halves of their last five matches, San Luis were trailing in 80% of cases and conceded an average of 1.8 goals, whereas Monterrey scored an average of 1.0 goals before the break. The hosts are also stronger after half-time, recently averaging 1.4 goals scored in the second half and conceding just 0.4. The most likely scenario is therefore that Monterrey will take the lead at the break and maintain it until the final whistle.