Morelia vs CA La Paz: match statistics

Morelia scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches and won 1 of those fixtures, while CA La Paz scored 4 goals but recorded no wins and 2 draws in their last five. Defensively the hosts look stronger — Morelia conceded 6 goals in 5 matches (1.2 per game), whereas La Paz conceded 9 (1.8 per game). Points per game also favor the hosts: Morelia has 0.8 PPG over the last 5, the visitors only 0.4. Given the low attacking efficiency (0.4 goals per game for Morelia and 0.8 for La Paz) I expect a low-scoring affair, so I back the home win, with a significant probability of a draw.

We have conflicting indicators: Morelia has 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches and scored only 2 goals (0.4 per match), while CA La Paz has 80% BTTS in their last five and scored 4 goals (0.8 per match). Both teams, however, concede frequently — the home side has allowed 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 per match) and the visitors 9 goals (1.8 per match), which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. xG figures confirm chances are being created: Morelia posts 1.16 xG per match and CA La Paz 1.01 xG, with xG against of 1.2 and 1.7 respectively, so both teams generate and concede opportunities. Despite Morelia’s low conversion (0.4 goals/match and 0% BTTS in the last 5), the strong away BTTS signal (80%) and the high average goals conceded by both sides support a BTTS - Yes forecast.

In the last 5 matches Morelia averaged 0.4 goals scored and conceded 1.2, while CA La Paz averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded 1.8. xG over the last 5 is 1.16 for Morelia and 1.01 for CA La Paz; comparing with average xG conceded (1.7 against La Paz opponents and 1.2 against Morelia opponents) yields expected goals: Morelia 1.43 = (1.16+1.7)/2 and CA La Paz 1.11 = (1.01+1.2)/2, total 2.54. Under a Poisson distribution this total implies roughly a 72% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 47% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and about 25% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Additionally, the away side had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches while the home side had 0%, indicating visitors often contribute to the scoreline; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 with an estimated ~72% probability.

I expect a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). CA La Paz were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), while Morelia were level at half-time in 2 of 5 (40%), giving an average tendency of about 60% for a half-time draw. After the break Morelia average 0.8 points in the second halves of their last five matches, whereas CA La Paz only average 0.2 points, so the home side clearly accumulate more points after the break. In full-time results Morelia have won 1 of their last 5 matches (20%) and CA La Paz have not won any (0%), and additionally CA La Paz concede an average of 1.8 goals per match versus 1.2 conceded by Morelia, which favors a turnaround by the home team.