Moss vs Strømmen: match statistics

Moss have the home advantage, averaging 1.63 goals scored at home with an xG of 1.64, while Strømmen concede as many as 2.44 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets. The hosts consistently create more chances, averaging 13.88 shots and 5 on target, compared with 9.78 and 4.44 respectively for the visitors. However, Strømmen come into this match on a slightly better run, taking 7 points from their last 5 games compared with Moss’s 4, while scoring 11 goals during that period. The visitors’ main weakness remains their away form: they have lost 67% of their away matches, average just 40% possession and have failed to score in 44% of away fixtures. Both defenses are prone to errors, so an open game is expected; however, Moss’s greater control and their opponents’ weakness on the road point towards a home win.

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 56%, but this has risen to 80% for both sides across their last five matches. During this period, Moss averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, while Strømmen scored and conceded 2.2 goals per match. The defenses are clearly vulnerable: the hosts concede 2.56 goals per game this season, compared with 2.44 for the visitors, while Strømmen have kept no clean sheets. Their attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.48 for Moss and 1.31 for Strømmen over the last five matches, with both teams allowing opponents at least 1.55 xG. The high proportion of matches featuring at least three goals—78% for Moss and 67% for Strømmen—further supports a goal-rich scenario with both teams finding the net, making BTTS - Yes the preferred option.

In their last five matches, Moss averaged 1.8 goals scored and the same number conceded, while Strømmen recorded even higher averages: 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. During this period, at least three goals were scored in all five of Moss’s matches and in 80% of Strømmen’s games, with both teams scoring in 80% of their respective matches. Their season-long defensive profiles also support a goals market, as Moss concede an average of 2.56 goals and Strømmen 2.44, while the visitors have kept a single clean sheet. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: both sides have cleared this line in 78% of their matches, and a projected total of 3.50 goals gives this option a clear edge.

A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario, as Moss were level at the break in 33% of their matches and Strømmen in 44%; at the same time, neither team led at half-time in more than 11% of games. Moss score just 0.22 goals per match before the break and failed to find the net in as many as 89% of first halves, limiting the hosts’ chances of building an early lead. After half-time, Strømmen average 1.11 goals, with that figure rising to 1.6 across their last five matches, while Moss concede an average of 1.33 goals after the break. The visitors also have the better current points form: they have won 40% of their last five matches, compared with 20% for Moss, and their average goals scored stands at 2.2 versus 1.8 for the hosts. The weak defenses of both teams, conceding 2.56 and 2.44 goals per match respectively over the season, favor an open closing phase, in which Strømmen have a slightly greater chance of turning the result in their favor.