Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa: match statistics

Legia Warszawa remain unbeaten after 6 rounds, with a record of 3 wins and 3 draws, while Motor Lublin have lost 3 of their 6 matches and sit 15th. The visitors have scored 11 goals in their last 5 games, compared with just 4 for the hosts over the same period, while Motor have conceded 8. Legia’s defense looks considerably more stable, conceding an average of 0.67 goals per away match compared with Motor’s 1.33 goals conceded at home. Motor create chances worth an average of 1.80 xG at home, but score just 0.67 goals per match and have failed to score in 33% of their home fixtures, highlighting a finishing problem. Legia also draw frequently away from home, with 2 of their 3 such matches ending level, but their stronger current form and greater consistency in front of goal favor an away win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 67% of their league matches, while the figures from their last five games are even higher: 60% for Motor and 80% for Legia. Legia are in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals across their last five matches with an xG of 1.79, while Motor conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period. Motor have recently scored just 0.8 goals per match, but created chances worth 1.62 xG, while Legia allowed opponents 1.32 xG, giving the hosts a realistic route to goal. Neither team has failed to score in a match this season, while both have kept a clean sheet in only 33% of their appearances. BTTS - Yes is therefore the most likely outcome, although Motor’s lower finishing efficiency limits the strength of this signal.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both the home and away teams have scored at least once in 100% of their matches so far, while the league average is as high as 3.0 goals. The last five matches point particularly to Legia’s attacking advantage: they averaged 2.2 goals scored, whereas Motor conceded 1.6 goals per game. The creative potential of both teams also supports at least two goals, with average xG figures from their last five appearances standing at 1.62 for Motor and 1.79 for Legia. Caution regarding higher lines is warranted because Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of the last five matches for each team. Therefore, the projected total of 2.70 goals favors the safer Over 1.5 market more clearly than Over 2.5.

The strongest signal points to Legia taking the lead before half-time: in their last five matches, the Warsaw side were ahead at the break in 60% of games, while Motor failed to lead at half-time on every occasion. During this period, Legia averaged 1.4 goals before the break, compared with just 0.2 for Motor, while the hosts conceded 0.8 goals per first half against 0.4 for the visitors. Full-match form also clearly favors Legia: they average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas Motor score 0.8 and allow opponents 1.6 goals per game. The visitors remain unbeaten in their last five appearances, recording 40% wins and 60% draws, while Motor lost 60% of the matches in this sample. Although Motor’s season-long home statistics are strong, Legia’s advantage in current form—particularly in the first halves—makes the 2/2 scenario the most likely outcome.