MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: match statistics
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
MSV Duisburg played against Hoffenheim II in 3. Liga (Germany). The game was played on April 18, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
MSV Duisburg has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Hoffenheim II has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
MSV Duisburg scores 1.79 goals per game and allows 1.30. Hoffenheim II scores 1.82 and allows 1.79. Games in this league average 3.13 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 64% of MSV Duisburg's games and 76% of Hoffenheim II's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 70%, compared with league averages of 64% for BTTS and 63% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Hoffenheim II has the higher season xG average, 1.67 to 1.52 per game. MSV Duisburg takes 12.4 shots per game, while Hoffenheim II takes 13.4.
First-half and second-half trends
MSV Duisburg leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 1.03 goals per game after halftime. Hoffenheim II leads at halftime in 27% and scores 0.85 after halftime.
When the teams score
MSV Duisburg's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (14 goals). For Hoffenheim II, it is minutes 0-15 (14 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
3. Liga games average 3.13 goals. Both teams score in 64% of games, and 63% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
MSV Duisburg has a clear home advantage: they win 75% of matches at their stadium, average 2.13 goals scored and concede only 1.00 per game, resulting in a +18 goal difference in home fixtures. Hoffenheim II struggle away — they concede 1.94 goals on average, record 50% losses on the road and have managed only 1 win in their last 5 matches, yielding 1.0 point per game in that period. Both teams can score (Duisburg 59 goals this season, Hoffenheim II 60) and have similar attacking xG (home xG 1.68 vs away xG 1.63), but the visitors have higher xG against (1.82 vs 1.32), which confirms their weaker defense. Duisburg register more shots on target at home (5.88 vs 5.63), have a lower share of goalless games (6% vs 13%) and better form over the last 5 matches (1.8 pts vs 1.0 pts for Hoffenheim II), so efficiency and defensive organization favor the hosts. Consequently, I tip an MSV Duisburg win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have very high season BTTS rates: MSV Duisburg 76% and Hoffenheim II 75%, clearly above the league average of 64%, indicating a strong likelihood of Goal/Goal. Hoffenheim II concedes 1.94 goals per game on average (59 goals conceded) with xG against 1.82, while Duisburg at home generates xG 1.72 and scores 1.65 on average, so both sides create and allow scoring opportunities. In the last 5 fixtures both teams have BTTS at 60% and in their last 5 matches Duisburg scored 8 and conceded 8 goals, Hoffenheim II scored 7 and conceded 7, which confirms a pattern of goal exchange. Low clean sheet expected rates (18% for Duisburg and 13% for Hoffenheim II) and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals, especially 81% for Hoffenheim II, further increase the probability of both teams scoring. Based on this I assign an 82% probability to BTTS = Yes and 18% to BTTS = No, so the recommended pick is "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals (xG) are 1.77 for MSV Duisburg and 1.54 for Hoffenheim II, totaling 3.31 — calculated as the average of offensive xG (1.72 for Duisburg, 1.63 for Hoffenheim II) and xG conceded by opponents (1.82 and 1.45). With total xG = 3.31, a Poisson model yields ~84% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~64% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~42% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal data support this picture: Over 1.5 occurs for the home side in 82% of matches and for the away side in 88%, and both teams score in 76% and 75% of appearances respectively, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, average shots on target 5.88 vs 5.63 and conversion rates 12% (Duisburg) vs 16% (Hoffenheim II), as well as goals scored this season 59 vs 60, suggest both teams create and convert chances. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (side: Over) at about 84% probability, while Over 2.5 (~64%) and Over 3.5 (~42%) are less convincing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hoffenheim II led at the break in 6 of 16 matches (38%), while MSV Duisburg led in only 3 of 17 (18%), providing a clear signal of the visitors’ advantage after 45 minutes. The visitors average 1.13 goals by half-time versus 0.82 for the home side, and over the season they average 2.00 goals scored compared to MSV’s 1.65, which increases the probability of maintaining a lead. Although the hosts have slightly higher xG (1.72 vs 1.63), Hoffenheim II exhibit higher finishing efficiency (16% vs 12%) and a better season win rate (38% vs 29%), so an overall victory for the visitors is more likely. Additionally, the high percentage of matches with both teams scoring (76% for the hosts and 75% for the visitors) and the fact that at least one goal is scored in the second half in 82% of home matches and 81% of away matches suggest a goal-filled second half and preservation of the visitors’ lead. On this basis the strongest signal is 2/2 (visitors leading at half-time and winning the match).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| MSV Duisburg | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
MSV Duisburg is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - MSV Duisburg · 1 pts / game - Hoffenheim II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 38% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.3 goals / game - MSV Duisburg · 1.79 goals / game - Hoffenheim II
MSV Duisburg scores in 79% of games (26 of 33 meczów), while Hoffenheim II keeps a clean sheet in 15% (5 of 33 meczów).
Hoffenheim II scores in 88% of games (29 of 33 meczów), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 30% (10 of 33 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
Over / Under - Hoffenheim II
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / game - MSV Duisburg · 1.24 pts / game - Hoffenheim II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 52%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Hoffenheim II - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
MSV Duisburg
Hoffenheim II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| MSV Duisburg | Liga | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 3.09 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.61 |
| Both teams scored | • 64% | 64% | ▲ 76% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 64% | 63% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 21% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 77% | ▲ 85% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 83% | • 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- MSV DuisburgYellow cardDominik Becker
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from MSV Duisburg's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Hoffenheim II. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
The 3. Liga match finished MSV Duisburg 3:1 Hoffenheim II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
MSV Duisburg score 1.79 goals per game on average and Hoffenheim II 1.82. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 64% of MSV Duisburg's matches and 76% of Hoffenheim II's.
What form are MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II in?
Over the last 5 games MSV Duisburg have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Hoffenheim II 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.