MTK vs Puskás: match statistics

MTK sit 2nd, while Puskás are 6th, and the hosts remain unbeaten this season: 1 win and 1 draw. At home, MTK won their only match so far 3:0, averaging 12 shots, including 6 on target, with an xG of 1.39. Puskás also won their only away match without conceding, but they create lower-quality chances than their opponents, with an average xG of 1.09 compared with MTK’s 1.39, while also allowing opponents an xG of 1.50. The visitors are, however, in clearly better form over their last five matches, in which they collected 10 points and scored 9 goals, whereas MTK recorded as many as 4 draws. Home advantage, a higher volume of goalscoring opportunities and a better chance-quality balance slightly favor an MTK victory, but a draw remains a realistic scenario.

The latest form of both teams favors goals at both ends: MTK and Puskás have each averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches. During the same period, the hosts conceded 1.2 goals per game and the visitors 1.0, while their elevated xG against figures stood at 1.48 and 1.55, respectively. BTTS occurred in 60% of MTK’s last five matches and in 40% of Puskás’ games, providing a moderately positive signal for the “Yes” option overall. Seasonal data is very limited and extreme, as MTK failed to score while Puskás kept clean sheets in 100% of their matches; therefore, greater weight should be placed on current form. With the league average for BTTS at 55%, the most likely scenario is that both teams will score at least one goal.

In their last five matches, MTK averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Puskás also averaged 1.8 goals scored, with 1.0 conceded. Both sides clearly possess creative potential: their average xG over five matches stands at 1.52 for MTK and 1.64 for Puskás, while their opponents were allowed 1.48 and 1.55 xG, respectively. This produces a projected total of 3.07 goals, while the league averages as many as 3.45 goals per match, with 64% of games featuring at least three goals. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches so far, and their current attacking output supports a scenario with at least two goals.

Puskás are showing clearly stronger results-based form: they have won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.0 points, while MTK recorded only a 20% win rate and averaged 1.4 points. The visitors more often establish a lead at the break, leading after 45 minutes in 60% of their recent appearances and averaging 1.0 goal scored in the first half; MTK score only 0.4 goals per match during this period. In addition, the seasonal data shows that Puskás won their previous match 2–0 after leading at half-time, while MTK lost 0–2 and went into the break behind. However, MTK can respond after the interval, averaging 1.4 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, which keeps the possibility of a draw at half-time followed by an away win at full-time relevant. Nevertheless, the strongest individual scenario remains Puskás leading at half-time and maintaining their winning advantage, supported by the visitors’ superior attacking efficiency: an average of 1.8 goals scored compared with 1.0 goal conceded.