Municipal Limeño vs INCA-Aruba: match statistics

Municipal Limeño scored 6 goals and conceded 7 in their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game. Their record is 2 wins and 3 losses (form: L-W-L-W-L) with 1.2 points per game. INCA-Aruba shows all key values as 0 in the provided data (0 goals in the last 5 matches, 0 pts/game according to available stats), indicating either no recorded appearances or missing data. The home side’s ability to score (6 in 5 matches) and the availability of match data favor them, while a leaky defense (7 conceded) leaves room for surprises. Considering the hosts’ 1.2 pts/game versus 0 for the visitors and Municipal’s offensive edge, I predict a home win (65% - 20% - 15%).

The home team have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in the last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Their average xG over the last 5 matches is 1.57 for and 1.61 against, i.e. they both generate and allow over 1.5 xG per game, which favors goal-scoring opportunities on both ends. However, the home side’s BTTS rate in this period is only 40% (about 2 of 5 matches), which reduces the absolute confidence in both teams scoring. The away team INCA-Aruba has missing data (all values equal 0), increasing forecast uncertainty; nevertheless, the dominant xG signal from the home team suggests expecting chances for both sides. Based on this, I assign a 60% probability to BTTS - Yes and 40% to BTTS - No as the most justified decision given the available numbers.

In the last 5 matches Municipal Limeño averaged 2.6 goals per match (6 scored and 7 conceded), with an average scored of 1.2 and conceded of 1.4. Their xG was 1.57 for the team and 1.61 against, giving a total xG = 3.18 and suggesting a higher goal potential than the observed 2.6 average. Lack of seasonal data for INCA-Aruba requires conservatively using Municipal’s form as a reference, hence the expected goals forecast: Municipal 1.20 and INCA-Aruba 1.40 (total 2.60). Based on this the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (88%), Over 2.5 has a slight edge (55% vs 45%) due to the total xG, while Over 3.5 appears unlikely (25%).

Municipal Limeño in their last 5 matches led at the break in 20% of cases (1 of 5), were level at half-time in 40% (2 of 5) and trailed at the break in 40% (2 of 5), so the most common half-time situation was a draw. In those 5 fixtures the hosts won 2 times (40%) and lost 3 times (60%), with no draws (0%), which increases the probability of a full-time defeat for the home side. The average goals by half-time is 0.8 (0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded), while the full-match average is 2.6 goals (1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded), suggesting a low tempo in the first half and greater decisiveness in the second. The lack of historical data for INCA-Aruba (all values 0) raises uncertainty, so as a base signal I multiply the 40% HT draws by the 60% FT defeats, yielding 24% for the scenario draw at the break and defeat at full-time, which reinforces selecting X/2 as the most likely outcome.