Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño: match statistics
Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Nacional Asunción played against Cerro Porteño in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The game was played on April 11, 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Recent form
Nacional Asunción has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Cerro Porteño has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Nacional Asunción scores 1.47 goals per game and allows 1.13. Cerro Porteño scores 1.67 and allows 0.87. Games in this league average 2.41 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Nacional Asunción's games and 33% of Cerro Porteño's. The Over 2.5 rates are 47% and 33%, compared with league averages of 48% for BTTS and 39% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Cerro Porteño has the higher season xG average, 1.52 to 1.29 per game. Nacional Asunción takes 12.3 shots per game, while Cerro Porteño takes 14.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Nacional Asunción leads at halftime in 20% of its games and scores 0.93 goals per game after halftime. Cerro Porteño leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.93 after halftime.
When the teams score
Nacional Asunción's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). For Cerro Porteño, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Division Profesional games average 2.41 goals. Both teams score in 48% of games, and 39% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cerro Porteño is the favorite in this match and I back the away win (2). The visitors have 10 wins this season versus Nacional’s 6 and display a clearly superior run — 4 wins in their last 5 matches compared to just 1 win for the hosts in the same period. In attack Cerro have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Nacional only 5, and the average shots on target is 5.29 for the visitors versus 4.29 for the hosts. Nacional at home average 1.86 goals and 58% possession, but Cerro on the road also average 1.86 goals and have a better goals-against record this season (13 vs 17) as well as a higher clean sheet percentage (43% vs 29%). Additionally, the visitors’ xG is 1.40 versus 1.35 for the hosts, and the edge in efficiency and points (an average of 2.4 points per game in the last 5 for Cerro vs 1.0 for Nacional) favors an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis slightly favors BTTS: home xG is 1.61 vs xG against guests 1.32, and away xG is 1.40 vs xG against hosts 1.03, translating to expected ~1.47 goals for Nacional and ~1.21 for Cerro Porteño. Seasonal indicators are mixed — Nacional has seasonal BTTS at home 25% with 50% clean sheets, while Cerro Porteño has seasonal BTTS 43% and 43% clean sheets; league BTTS level is 48%. Last 5 matches shift the picture: Nacional in those five has BTTS 60% and concedes on average 1.6 goals, whereas Cerro in the last 5 scores on average 2.2 goals and concedes 1.0, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally shots and efficiency show 16.25 shots (Nacional) vs 12.86 (Cerro) and conversion rate 9% vs 14%, suggesting the visitors are more efficient and likelier to score. Considering xG>1 for both teams, Nacional’s worsened recent defensive stats and Cerro’s higher efficiency, I rate BTTS as more probable (58% vs 42%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate Nacional to score about 1.47 goals and Cerro Porteño about 1.21 goals, totaling ~2.68 goals. The projection is based on xG: hosts have xG-for 1.61 and guests xG-against 1.32 (average ≈1.47 for hosts), while visitors have xG-for 1.40 against hosts’ xG-against 1.03 (≈1.21 for guests). With lambda = 2.68 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 75% probability for Over 1.5, about 50% for Over 2.5 and around 28% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Seasonal figures reinforce this choice: hosts have 88% of matches Over 1.5, guests 71%, and both teams show high Over 0.5 rates (100% and 86%). For these reasons I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the most likely outcome.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 2/2 scenario (away team leading at half-time and winning the match) as the most likely, because Cerro Porteño won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and led at the break in 2 of 5 (40%), while Nacional led at half-time in 0 of 5 (0%). In the first half over the last 5 matches the away side averaged 1.2 goals versus 0.2 for the home side, and on the season the away team scores 1.86 goals per game versus 1.50 for the home team, indicating an offensive edge for the visitors. Although the home side’s xG is higher (1.61 vs 1.40) and they attempt more shots on average (16.25 vs 12.86), the visitors are more efficient (14% vs 9%), which increases the likelihood of converting chances into goals and maintaining the lead. Considering form (80% away wins in the last 5), first-half goal advantage (1.2 vs 0.2) and seasonal goal figures, the 2/2 scenario is the strongest signal; alternatively X/2 (draw at half-time and away win) is also a realistic outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional Asunción | Cerro Porteño | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Cerro Porteño is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Nacional Asunción · 2.4 pts / game - Cerro Porteño
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cerro Porteño is 14% better for: goals scored per game.
1.47 goals / game - Nacional Asunción · 1.67 goals / game - Cerro Porteño
Cerro Porteño is 30% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.13 goals / game - Nacional Asunción · 0.87 goals / game - Cerro Porteño
Nacional Asunción scores in 87% of games (13 of 15 meczów), while Cerro Porteño keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 meczów).
Cerro Porteño scores in 73% of games (11 of 15 meczów), while Nacional Asunción keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional Asunción
Over / Under - Cerro Porteño
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cerro Porteño is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / game - Nacional Asunción · 1.47 pts / game - Cerro Porteño
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional Asunción - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cerro Porteño - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 67%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Nacional Asunción
Cerro Porteño
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Nacional Asunción | Liga | Cerro Porteño | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.60 | 2.41 | ▲ 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 48% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 39% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 29% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 81% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Nacional Asunción's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses against Cerro Porteño. Games average 2.60 goals, and both teams scored in 60% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
The Division Profesional match finished Nacional Asunción 0:0 Cerro Porteño. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional Asunción and Cerro Porteño?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional Asunción won 1, Cerro Porteño won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
Nacional Asunción score 1.47 goals per game on average and Cerro Porteño 1.67. The Division Profesional average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Nacional Asunción's matches and 33% of Cerro Porteño's.
What form are Nacional Asunción and Cerro Porteño in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional Asunción have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Cerro Porteño 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño?
The statistical background for Nacional Asunción vs Cerro Porteño — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.