Nacional vs Cerro: match statistics
Nacional vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Nacional played against Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The game was played on May 10, 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Recent form
Nacional has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Cerro has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Nacional scores 1.57 goals per game and allows 1.50. Cerro scores 0.57 and allows 1.43. Games in this league average 2.46 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 64% of Nacional's games and 43% of Cerro's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 29%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 46% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Nacional has the higher season xG average, 1.55 to 1.34 per game. Nacional takes 12.8 shots per game, while Cerro takes 11.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Nacional leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. Cerro leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.36 after halftime.
When the teams score
Nacional's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Cerro, it is minutes 76-90+ (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Primera División games average 2.46 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 46% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional is the clear favorite: at home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per match, with a home goal difference of +2. Cerro on the road scores only 0.5 goals per match and concedes 2.33 on average, with a -11 goal difference and 0% away wins. The quality gap is evident in xG and shots — Nacional posts an average xG of 1.78 and 5.17 shots on target per match versus Cerro’s 1.36 xG and 2.5 shots on target, with conversion rates of 8% vs 4%. Form is mixed: Nacional have won only 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 13 goals in that span, while Cerro scored 4 and conceded 6 in their last five, which highlights the hosts’ vulnerability to errors. Considering the edge in xG, shots and possession (59% vs 46%), I give Nacional the higher probability.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely: 68% vs 32%. The main argument is the recent trend of both teams — Nacional had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, and Cerro in 60%, compared to the league average of 53% BTTS. Cerro concedes as many as 2.33 goals per game this season and has no away clean sheets (0%), while Nacional has been conceding 2.6 goals on average in their last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood that both teams will score. Although seasonal goals averages are low (Nacional 0.63 at home, Cerro 0.5 away), the last 5 matches show higher values (1.6 and 0.8) and comparable xG 1.26 vs 1.36 (last 5: 1.39 vs 1.21), so both sides are creating chances. Additionally Nacional averages 4.0 shots on target vs 2.5 for Cerro and has a higher conversion rate (6% vs 4%), which further boosts the probability that the match will end with goals for both teams.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Forecast based on xG and form: in the last 5 matches Nacional has xG_for = 1.39, while opponents against them have xG_against = 1.34, yielding an expected ~ (1.39+1.34)/2 = 1.37 goals for the home side; Cerro has last5 xG_for = 1.21 and hosts’ last5 xG_against = 1.37, giving ~1.29 goals for the away side. Total expected is 2.66 goals, slightly above the 2.5 line, favoring the Over. Seasonal metrics are mixed: seasonally Nacional has 0% Over 2.5 matches versus 67% for Cerro, but in the last 5 matches Nacional had 100% Over 2.5 while Cerro had 20%, which adds uncertainty; however short-term form favors goals. Additionally Cerro concedes on average 2.33 goals this season, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 = 100%), increasing the probability of at least three finishes; therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics strongly indicate a draw at half-time: Nacional has been level at the break in 8 of 8 matches (100%), averages 0.25 goals by half-time and records 88% clean sheets at the break, so the HT/FT is most likely a draw at half-time. After the break the hosts have the greater chances — Nacional earns 1.13 points per home match versus 0.17 points for the away side, while Cerro lose 83% of their matches and have not registered a win, which supports a home victory. The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals per match versus 0.75 conceded by Nacional and have higher expected goals against (1.57 vs 1.27), so Cerro’s defense looks weaker over the full match. Additionally Nacional register more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.5) and have a higher conversion rate (6% vs 4%), therefore the optimal selection is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Cerro is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Nacional · 1 pts / game - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 175% better for: goals scored per game.
1.57 goals / game - Nacional · 0.57 goals / game - Cerro
Cerro is 5% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Nacional · 1.43 goals / game - Cerro
Nacional scores in 86% of games (12 of 14 meczów), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 14% (2 of 14 meczów).
Cerro scores in 57% of games (8 of 14 meczów), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional
Over / Under - Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 123% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / game - Nacional · 0.64 pts / game - Cerro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cerro - second-half results
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Nacional
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.07 | 2.46 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 53% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 46% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 26% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 71% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 77% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Nacional's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses against Cerro. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 4:0 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Cerro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1, Cerro won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Cerro?
Nacional score 1.57 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.57. The Primera División average is 2.46 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Nacional's matches and 43% of Cerro's.
What form are Nacional and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Cerro 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Cerro?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Cerro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.