Nacional vs Cerro: match statistics
Nacional vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional play Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 11 May 2026 at 00:30. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cerro: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Cerro scores 0.60 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 57%, Cerro 40%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Cerro 35%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.32. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Cerro: 11.4.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86. Cerro: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.30.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Cerro: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Nacional is the clear favorite: at home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per match, with a home goal difference of +2. Cerro on the road scores only 0.5 goals per match and concedes 2.33 on average, with a -11 goal difference and 0% away wins. The quality gap is evident in xG and shots — Nacional posts an average xG of 1.78 and 5.17 shots on target per match versus Cerro’s 1.36 xG and 2.5 shots on target, with conversion rates of 8% vs 4%. Form is mixed: Nacional have won only 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 13 goals in that span, while Cerro scored 4 and conceded 6 in their last five, which highlights the hosts’ vulnerability to errors. Considering the edge in xG, shots and possession (59% vs 46%), I give Nacional the higher probability.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nacional · 1.2 pts / match - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 153% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - Nacional · 0.6 goals / match - Cerro
Nacional is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Nacional · 1.6 goals / match - Cerro
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
Cerro scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 65% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Nacional · 0.75 pts / match - Cerro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.41 | ▼ 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 46% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 73% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Nacional 1 - 1 - 0 Cerro. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 4:0 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Cerro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1, Cerro won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Cerro?
Nacional score 1.52 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.60. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional's matches and 40% of Cerro's.
What form are Nacional and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cerro 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Cerro?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Cerro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.