Nacional has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.60 points per game. Deportivo Maldonado has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.

Scoring records

Nacional scores 1.50 goals per game and allows 1.19. Deportivo Maldonado scores 1.56 and allows 0.88. Games in this league average 2.37 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 53% of Nacional's games and 47% of Deportivo Maldonado's. The Over 2.5 rates are 56% and 41%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Nacional has the higher season xG average, 1.45 to 1.40 per game. Nacional takes 11.1 shots per game, while Deportivo Maldonado takes 11.3.

First-half and second-half trends

Nacional leads at halftime in 31% of its games and scores 0.88 goals per game after halftime. Deportivo Maldonado leads at halftime in 41% and scores 0.78 after halftime.

When the teams score

Nacional's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). For Deportivo Maldonado, it is minutes 76-90+ (15 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Primera División games average 2.37 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

Before kickoff

1X2 odds

(1.83)

(3.38)

(3.79)

-Double chance 1X

-Double chance X2

-BTTS Yes odds

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.72Points per game1.84

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.5Goals scored / game1.56

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.19Goals allowed / game0.88

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.45xG for1.4

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

52%Average possession53%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

4.19Shots on target / game4.16

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

34%Clean sheets44%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

53%Both teams scored47%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

11.13Shots per game11.25

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

4.19Shots on target4.16

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

13.5%Shot conversion13.9%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

52%Possession53%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.45xG for1.4

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.07xG against1.26

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Shooting quality

Nacional: Efficient finishingDeportivo Maldonado: Efficient finishing

	Nacional	Deportivo Maldonado
Accuracy (shots on target)	38%	37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)	0.13	0.12
Finishing (goals per shot on target)	0.36	0.38

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Nacional is 30% better for: last-5 form.

2.6 pts / game - Nacional · 2 pts / game - Deportivo Maldonado

Nacional

DWWWW

Unbeaten in the last 5 games

Season result split

53% W13% D34% L

Season (W-D-L)

17-4-11

1.72 pts / game · goal difference +10

Last 5 (W-D-L)

4-1-0

2.60 pts / game

Record at home (W-D-L)

9-2-5

Last 5 at home

3-1-1

LWDWW

Last 5 games - averages

Goals scored: 1.8Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 1.39Opponent xG: 1.01BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 20%

Deportivo Maldonado

LWWWD

Season result split

53% W25% D22% L

Season (W-D-L)

17-8-7

1.84 pts / game · goal difference +22

Last 5 (W-D-L)

3-1-1

2.00 pts / game

Record away (W-D-L)

6-3-6

Last 5 away

2-0-3

LWLLW

Last 5 games - averages

Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 0.4xG: 1.07Opponent xG: 1.40BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Deportivo Maldonado is 35% better for: goals allowed per game.

1.19 goals / game - Nacional · 0.88 goals / game - Deportivo Maldonado

Nacional scoring profile: strong

Nacional scores in 84% of games (27 of 32 games), while Deportivo Maldonado keeps a clean sheet in 44% (14 of 32 games).

Deportivo Maldonado scoring profile: very strong

Deportivo Maldonado scores in 81% of games (26 of 32 games), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 games).

48Goals scored (season)50

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

38Goals conceded (season)28

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

2.69Average goals per game2.44

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

9Goals scored (last 5)8

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

3Goals conceded (last 5)2

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Nacional

34%

Clean sheets11 of 32 games

16%

No goal5 of 32 games

Deportivo Maldonado

44%

Clean sheets14 of 32 games

19%

No goal6 of 32 games

How often they score at least...

84%1 goal81%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

47%2 goals47%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

16%3 goals19%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

3%4 goals9%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

How often they concede at least...

66%1 goal56%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

38%2 goals28%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

13%3 goals3%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

3%4 goals0%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

53%

Nacional - BTTS17 of 32 games

47%

Deportivo Maldonado - BTTS15 of 32 games

51%

League average

Goal patterns

22%BTTS at half-time28%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

3%BTTS in both halves6%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

28%Scored in both halves31%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

BTTS and goal count

47%Min. 3 goals and BTTS34%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

9%Min. 3 goals without BTTS6%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

40%BTTS - last 520%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

97%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)91%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

75%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)75%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

56%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)41%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

25%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)19%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

13%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)9%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Over / Under - Nacional

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 97%Under 3%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 56%Under 44%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 13%Under 87%

Over / Under - Deportivo Maldonado

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 91%Under 9%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 41%Under 59%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 19%Under 81%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 9%Under 91%

1st half

66%Min. 1 goal before half-time69%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

28%Min. 2 goals before half-time34%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

9%Min. 3 goals before half-time16%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

2nd half

84%Min. 1 goal after half-time72%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

53%Min. 2 goals after half-time34%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

16%Min. 3 goals after half-time13%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Deportivo Maldonado is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.44 pts / game - Nacional · 1.72 pts / game - Deportivo Maldonado

Nacional - half-time state

31% leading50% draw19% trailing

Deportivo Maldonado - half-time state

41% leading50% draw9% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.44Points per game (1st half)1.72

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

0.63Goals scored (1st half)0.78

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

0.5Goals conceded (1st half)0.47

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.13Average goals (1st half)1.25

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

63%Clean sheet before half-time63%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

50%No goal before half-time41%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

After half-time (2nd half)

1.53Points per game (2nd half)1.75

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

0.88Goals scored (2nd half)0.78

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

0.69Goals conceded (2nd half)0.41

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

1.56Average goals (2nd half)1.19

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

50%Clean sheet after half-time69%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

38%No goal after half-time47%

NacionalDeportivo Maldonado

Nacional - second-half results

41% W31% D28% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.44

PPG before half-time

Lead holding171%

Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 53%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.2

Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Deportivo Maldonado - second-half results

47% W34% D19% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+10

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

+12

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.72

PPG before half-time

Lead holding129%

Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 53%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime-0.1

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Nacional - last 5 games by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per game	2.00	2.20
Goals scored / game	0.6	1.2
Goals allowed / game	0.2	0.4
Average goals per game	0.8	1.6
1 goal	80%	80%
2 goals	0%	40%
3 goals	0%	20%
Clean sheet	80%	60%
No goal	40%	20%
Goal difference	+2	+4

Half-time: 60% leading - 20% draw - 20% trailing

2nd half: 60% won - 40% draw - 0% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 3

Deportivo Maldonado - last 5 games by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per game	1.80	2.00
Goals scored / game	0.4	1.2
Goals allowed / game	0.0	0.4
Average goals per game	0.4	1.6
1 goal	40%	100%
2 goals	0%	60%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	100%	60%
No goal	60%	20%
Goal difference	+2	+4

Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing

2nd half: 60% won - 20% draw - 20% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Nacional

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

Deportivo Maldonado

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.56

Estimated goals

attack vs. opponent defense

1.2 : 1.4

Estimated goal split

home : away

108%

Pace vs league

100% = league average

50%

Both teams scored (BTTS)

average from both teams' seasons

+75%

Derby effect

H2H goals vs typical matches

68%

BTTS estimate

from both teams' scoring frequency

0:0 risk

about 1 in 33 matches

2-3

Most common goal range

attack vs. defense for both teams

Nacional

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

+0.38

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

-0.07

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

-4.0 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

+0.05

Defensive efficiency

Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.

-0.12

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

115%

Defense vs. league

Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.

111%

Form trend

Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.

+0.88

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

+0.3

Late goals

25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 10% come in the first quarter-hour.

25%

Deportivo Maldonado

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

+0.14

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

+0.54

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

-14.1 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

+0.16

Defensive efficiency

Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.

+0.38

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

146%

Defense vs. league

Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.

68%

Form trend

Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.

+0.16

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

0.0

Late goals

30% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 14% come in the first quarter-hour.

30%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).

Teams vs league

	Nacional	Liga	Deportivo Maldonado
Average goals per game	▲ 2.69	2.37	• 2.44
Both teams scored	▲ 53%	51%	▼ 47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 56%	44%	▼ 41%
Clean sheets	▲ 34%	29%	▲ 44%
Goal before half-time	• 66%	67%	▲ 69%
Goal after half-time	▲ 84%	73%	• 72%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.37

Average goals per game

51%

Both teams scored

44%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

29%

Clean sheets

1.30

Home goals / game

1.07

Away goals / game

+21%

Home attack advantage

+18%

Home defensive advantage

+8%

Total home advantage

Goals in 1st half (whole league)

67%

1 goal

31%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals in 2nd half (whole league)

73%

1 goal

37%

2 goals

13%

3 goals

4 goals

Head-to-head

Record from Nacional's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses against Deportivo Maldonado. Games average 4.50 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.

FAQ

When do Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado play?

Nacional face Deportivo Maldonado on October 19, 2026 in Primera División at Estadio Gran Parque Central. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado?

In the last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 0, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Nacional score 1.50 goals per game on average and Deportivo Maldonado 1.56. The Primera División average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Nacional's matches and 47% of Deportivo Maldonado's.

What form are Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado in?

Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Deportivo Maldonado 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.