Nacional vs Progreso: match statistics
Nacional vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional played Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 2 August 2026. Venue: Estadio Gran Parque Central. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Progreso: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Progreso scores 0.81 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.36 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 57%, Progreso 43%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Progreso 43%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.16. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Progreso: 8.5.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86. Progreso: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Progreso: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.36 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional appears to be the favorite: at home they average 1.5 goals per game with xG 1.65 and only 0.8 goals conceded, while Progreso away scores just 0.7 goals with xG 1.15 and concedes 1.4. The hosts create significantly more opportunities — 13.3 shots and 4.9 on target per home match (conversion rate ~11%) versus the visitors’ 8.1 shots and 3.5 on target (conversion rate ~9%). Additionally, Progreso fail to score in 50% of away fixtures and have only a 10% clean sheet rate on the road, whereas Nacional keep a clean sheet in 40% of home matches, increasing the hosts’ chance of preserving a result. In the short term the visitors have a slightly better scoring run — 5 goals and 1.2 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Nacional’s 3 goals and 0.8 points — but the differences in xG (1.65 vs 1.15), shot volume (13.3 vs 8.1) and home defence (0.8 vs 1.4) favor Nacional, so I expect a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis shows Nacional scores an average of 0.91 goals per game and Progreso 0.70, with xG of 1.18 and 1.15 respectively, indicating both teams generate similar chances despite moderate finishing. Season-to-date Nacional concedes 1.64 goals per game and Progreso 1.40; in the last 5 matches they conceded 1.8 and 1.4 on average, while season clean sheets are only 9% and 10%, so opponents regularly find the net. Season BTTS rates are 45% for Nacional and 40% for Progreso, but the league average is 52% BTTS, and Progreso has 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches (5 goals, 1.0 per game), reinforcing the both-teams-to-score signal. Additionally, xG against both teams is 1.46, with shots on target 3.0 vs 3.5 and average shots 8.82 vs 8.10, showing plenty of goal-scoring opportunities. Given the low clean sheet rates (9%/10%), similar xG and Progreso’s better recent form, I project BTTS - Yes with 60% probability versus 40% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.32 for Nacional and 1.30 for Progreso (home xG 1.18 vs away xG 1.15, with average xG against both teams 1.46), totaling 2.62 goals. Seasonally Nacional exceeds 1.5 goals in 64% of matches, and Progreso in 70%, while both teams have 100% of matches with over 0.5 goals, reducing the risk of a goalless draw. Additionally, hosts concede on average 1.64 goals per game, visitors 1.40, and shots on target of 3.0 and 3.5 with conversion rates of 10% vs 9% indicate consistent chance production; in the last 5 matches Nacional scored a total of 3 goals (0.6 avg), and Progreso 5 goals (1.0 avg). Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (74% probability), while the 2.5 line is balanced (~49% Over), and 3.5 remains unlikely (27% Over).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics show home teams leading at the break in 27% of matches, half-time draws in 36%, and home teams trailing at half-time in 36% of cases. When home teams lead at the break, they maintain that lead until full-time in 55% of matches, supporting a moderate 15% probability for the 1/1 scenario. With a half-time draw (36%), away teams hold a clear advantage in the second half: they average 1.3 points in the second half versus 0.73 for hosts and score more frequently in minutes 76–90 (4 away goals vs. 2 home), hence X/2 is assessed at 18%. Additionally, xG is comparable (1.18 vs. 1.15), but away teams much more often take the lead after the break (80% of cases), so the strongest signal from the data is 2/2 (away leading at half-time and winning), which I assign a 30% probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nacional · 1.2 pts / match - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 88% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - Nacional · 0.81 goals / match - Progreso
Nacional is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Nacional · 1.52 goals / match - Progreso
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 21 matches).
Progreso scores in 52% of matches (11 of 21 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Nacional · 0.76 pts / match - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.36 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 51% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 45% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 68% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 71% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Nacional 4 - 0 - 0 Progreso. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Progreso?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 2:1 Progreso. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Progreso?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 4, Progreso won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Progreso?
Nacional score 1.52 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.81. The Primera División average is 2.36 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional's matches and 43% of Progreso's.
What form are Nacional and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Progreso 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Progreso?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Progreso — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.