ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Vrhnika: match statistics

ND Slovan Ljubljana have won all of their home matches so far, averaging 2.5 goals per game, while NK Vrhnika score just 1.0 goal on average away from home. The hosts are also in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals, whereas the visitors have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats with 10 goals scored. Vrhnika tend to enjoy more possession away from home, averaging 60%, and attempt 13.5 shots compared with their opponents’ 10. However, they have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, with a conversion rate of just 7%. The hosts convert as many as 25% of their shots and, although they allow opponents to generate a high xG of 2.25, their attacking efficiency and home advantage point towards a Slovan Ljubljana victory. The match could be open, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in their respective home and away fixtures so far.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS at 60%, compared with the league average of 41%. During this period, Slovan averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Vrhnika scored 2.0 and allowed opponents 1.8 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures from the last five matches: 1.66 for the hosts and 1.99 for the visitors, with xG against at 1.75 and 1.50 respectively. Vrhnika have yet to keep a single clean sheet this season, which significantly increases Slovan’s chances of scoring, while the hosts average 6.0 shots on target per match. Although Slovan have kept clean sheets in 33% of their matches, the current defensive vulnerability of both teams and their strong recent finishing record point more convincingly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Slovan averages 2.0 goals at home, while Vrhnika concedes 1.5 goals away, which clearly supports the hosts’ scoring output. The attacking potential of both sides is confirmed by high xG figures: 2.13 for Slovan and 1.67 for Vrhnika, with the hosts’ xG against standing at 1.58. In their last five matches, Slovan averaged 2.6 goals scored and Vrhnika 2.0, while their defenses conceded 1.6 and 1.8 goals per game, respectively. At least 2 goals were scored in 67% of Slovan’s matches and in all of Vrhnika’s away fixtures, making Over 1.5 the market best supported by the data. The 2.5 line also looks positive, as 100% of Slovan’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, but Over 1.5 remains the clearly safer choice.

The strongest scenario is Slovan leading at the break and securing the win after the final whistle, as the hosts were ahead at half-time in 2 of their 3 home matches so far, while Vrhnika were trailing at the break in both of their away fixtures. In their last five matches, Slovan averaged 1.8 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors conceded as many as 1.4 goals per game during this phase. The hosts also have a clear edge in finishing efficiency: they average 2.0 goals with a 15% shot-conversion rate, compared with Vrhnika’s 1.0 goals and 7%. Overall, Slovan won 80% of their last five matches, while their attacking xG stands at 2.13 against 1.32 xG conceded by the visitors. There is some risk of Vrhnika completing a turnaround, as they averaged 1.4 goals in their last five second halves, but the hosts’ advantage from the start of the match supports them maintaining their lead.