Negele Arsi Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Dire Dawa Kenema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on May 11, 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Dire Dawa Kenema has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.97 goals per game and allows 0.70. Dire Dawa Kenema scores 0.63 and allows 1.03. Games in this league average 1.80 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 40% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 37% of Dire Dawa Kenema's. The Over 2.5 rates are 23% and 27%, compared with league averages of 41% for BTTS and 27% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Negele Arsi Ketema has the higher season xG average, 1.17 to 1.03 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 7.0 shots per game, while Dire Dawa Kenema takes 6.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 0.53 goals per game after halftime. Dire Dawa Kenema leads at halftime in 17% and scores 0.37 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Dire Dawa Kenema, it is minutes 61-75 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.80 goals. Both teams score in 41% of games, and 27% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I recommend a home win (1). Negele Arsi Ketema sit 2nd and have scored 29 goals this season versus Dire Dawa Kenema’s 19, giving the hosts a +10 offensive advantage. Defensively the hosts are tighter — they concede 0.73 goals per home match (21 conceded) while the visitors concede 1.00 per match and carry a -5 away goal difference. Quality of chances favors the hosts: home xG 1.07 vs. visitors’ 0.96 xG away, hosts average 2.67 shots on target per game vs. 2.27 for the visitors and have higher conversion (TS%) 14% vs. 10%; although the visitors have greater possession (56% vs. 46%), it does not translate into better attacking efficiency. Last five-form profiles show hosts’ stability — 1 win and 4 draws (avg. 1.4 points/game) vs. visitors’ 1-2-2 (avg. 1.0 point), with the hosts scoring 5 goals in their last five matches compared to the visitors’ 3. Additionally, visitors fail to score in 47% of away trips versus 33% of hosts’ clean sheets; with a low average total goals (≈1.60–1.67) this increases the hosts’ chances. Probability estimate: Home 55%, Draw 30%, Away 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season-long data indicate a low-scoring profile: the home team averages 0.6 goals per game, the away team 0.67, while conceding 1.07 and 1.0 goals per game respectively. BTTS rates this season are low: only 33% of the home team’s matches and 40% of the away team’s matches end with both teams scoring, and across the league BTTS occurs in 41% of fixtures; additionally 79% of league matches finish with at least one clean sheet, which favors the “No” scenario. Detailed offensive metrics show limited threat: the home side has xG 1.10 with 6.6 shots and 2.87 shots on target on average and a 9% conversion rate, while the visitors have xG 0.96 with 6.4 shots and 2.27 on target at 10% conversion, so clear goalscoring chances should be scarce. Despite a local risk signal — the home team has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 on average — this is a short-term trend that does not overturn the season-long figures (home 29 scored/21 conceded, away 19 scored/31 conceded), where low totals dominate. Therefore, based on the advantage of season-long indicators (low goals averages 0.6 vs 0.67, low BTTS 33% and 40%, and 79% of league matches with a clean sheet), I select BTTS - No with an estimated probability of 70% versus 30% for Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Considering xG (home 1.10, away 0.96), season averages of goals scored (0.60 and 0.67) and recent form over the last 5 matches (home 1.0 goal/match, away 0.6), I project 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.78 for the away side, total 1.83. A Poisson model at this mean yields roughly a 55% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), which aligns with season Over 1.5 rates: 67% for the home team and 60% for the away team. The probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) is about 28%, while season Over 2.5 rates are 33% for the home side and 20% for the away, therefore Under 2.5 (72%) is the clearer signal. I assess Over 3.5 at around 11%, supported by season values of 0% and 7%; moderate BTTS rates (33% and 40%) also do not indicate many goals. In summary, the strongest and most conservative selection is Under 2.5 due to low actual goal averages and a history of infrequent high-scoring matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Hosts led at the break in only 7% of matches, and visitors in 27% — from these figures it follows that a draw at the break is dominant (approx. 100% - 7% - 27% = 66%). This is confirmed by seasonal and recent statistics: hosts draw at half-time in 53% of matches (80% in their last 5), visitors in 40% of matches, with low average first-half goals 0.73 for hosts and 0.80 for visitors (goals scored by half: 0.20 vs 0.33). Additionally, xG of 1.10 for hosts versus 0.96 for visitors and a high proportion of draws in second halves (60%/47%) suggest the draw will hold through 90 minutes, hence X/X receives the highest rating at 35% (other notable scenarios: X/2 18%, X/1 13%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Dire Dawa Kenema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1 pts / game - Dire Dawa Kenema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 54% better for: goals scored per game.
0.97 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.63 goals / game - Dire Dawa Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema is 47% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.7 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.03 goals / game - Dire Dawa Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 67% of games (20 of 30 meczów), while Dire Dawa Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 37% (11 of 30 meczów).
Dire Dawa Kenema scores in 47% of games (14 of 30 meczów), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 43% (13 of 30 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Dire Dawa Kenema
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 52% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.97 pts / game - Dire Dawa Kenema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Dire Dawa Kenema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 23%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Dire Dawa Kenema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Dire Dawa Kenema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.67 | 1.80 | ▼ 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | • 40% | 41% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 23% | 27% | • 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 39% | ▼ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 47% | 54% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 63% | 59% | ▼ 57% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Record from Negele Arsi Ketema's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Dire Dawa Kenema. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 3:0 Dire Dawa Kenema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.97 goals per game on average and Dire Dawa Kenema 0.63. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 37% of Dire Dawa Kenema's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Dire Dawa Kenema in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Dire Dawa Kenema 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.