Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Ethiopian Medhin in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on April 9, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Ethiopian Medhin has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.96 goals per game and allows 0.68. Ethiopian Medhin scores 0.75 and allows 0.79. Games in this league average 1.78 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 32% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 38% of Ethiopian Medhin's. The Over 2.5 rates are 24% and 25%, compared with league averages of 41% for BTTS and 27% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ethiopian Medhin has the higher season xG average, 1.28 to 1.17 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 7.0 shots per game, while Ethiopian Medhin takes 7.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 28% of its games and scores 0.52 goals per game after halftime. Ethiopian Medhin leads at halftime in 21% and scores 0.21 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Ethiopian Medhin, it is minutes 16-30 (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.78 goals. Both teams score in 41% of games, and 27% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema are the bookmakers' favorites on paper — they sit 3rd in the table with 11 wins this season versus Ethiopian Medhin's 5 wins (18th), and the home side’s seasonal record is 24 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home the hosts are defensively solid: 0.75 goals conceded per match on average and 42% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 0.92 goals on the road and have only 33% clean sheets. However, Ethiopian Medhin show better short-term form — in the last 5 matches they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 3 with an average of 1.6 points per match, whereas the hosts over the same period have 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, only 2 goals scored and 4 conceded and 1.0 point per match on average. The visitors create more chances and higher-quality opportunities: away xG 1.29 versus home xG 1.12 for the hosts, averaging 7.58 shots and 3.17 on target per match versus Negele’s 6.75 shots and 2.83 on target, with similar conversion rates 13% vs 14%. Considering the hosts’ league-position advantage and superior defense against the visitors’ offensive activity, I project a home win with estimated probabilities: 56% home win, 24% draw, 20% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Negele Arsi Ketema averages 0.5 goals per match this season (0.4 in the last 5), and their seasonal percentage of matches with both teams scoring is only 25% (20% in the last 5), which significantly limits the likelihood of BTTS. Ethiopian Medhin posts stronger attacking numbers: 1.0 goals on average this season and 1.4 in their last five matches, with a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% (40% in the last 5), meaning the visitors more frequently feature in Goal/Goal outcomes. Despite comparable xG (1.26 for the hosts vs 1.29 for the visitors), the hosts’ poor finishing (shot conversion 7% vs 13% for the visitors, shots on target 2.45 vs 3.17) indicates Negele create chances but fail to convert them, reducing the probability of both teams scoring. Additionally, both teams keep clean sheets in 33% of matches, while the league-level BTTS is 41%, so with the hosts’ weaker attack (0.5 vs 1.0) the No Goal signal is strongest; therefore I estimate BTTS - Yes at 35% and No at 65%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A mixed model combining xG and actual goal averages yields an expected value of 0.99 goals for Negele Arsi Ketema and 1.15 for Ethiopian Medhin, totaling 2.14 goals. The xG signal is higher: home xG 1.26 vs away 1.29 (xG against 1.21 and 1.37 respectively), suggesting potential ~1.32 xG for the home side and ~1.25 for the visitors, but the hosts severely underperform in conversion — shot conversion rate 7% versus 13% for the guests and a seasonal home goals average of only 0.5 — so I downgraded the forecast. Seasonal indicators show home matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 33% of cases and away matches in 58% (average ~45%), while the league average is 1.77 goals per match, which further justifies a cautious approach. This implies the strongest signal is Over 1.5: with expected 2.14 goals the probability of >1.5 is around 63%, whereas Over 2.5 is ~36% and Over 3.5 ~17%, so I recommend backing the over at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home team had a draw at the break in 8 of 12 matches (67%), and the away team also in 8 of 12 (67%), so HT=X is highly likely. After the break the away side has the greater chances — over the season away teams won 33% of matches versus only 8% for home wins, and away teams average 1.0 goals per match compared with 0.5 for the home side, which favors the away victory after 90 minutes. Additionally, the away team scored 13 goals before the break versus 8 for the hosts and in the last 5 fixtures they led at the break in 40% of cases, which supports the X/2 scenario. Qualitative metrics are similar (xG 1.29 vs 1.26), but the higher efficiency of the away team (conversion 13% vs 7%) together with the seasonal results leads me to assign X/2 the highest probability (40%), with X/X at 20% as a realistic alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Ethiopian Medhin is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.6 pts / game - Ethiopian Medhin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 28% better for: goals scored per game.
0.96 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.75 goals / game - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema is 16% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.68 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.79 goals / game - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 64% of games (16 of 25 meczów), while Ethiopian Medhin keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 meczów).
Ethiopian Medhin scores in 46% of games (11 of 24 meczów), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 48% (12 of 25 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Ethiopian Medhin
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.29 pts / game - Ethiopian Medhin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 28% of games and wins 44%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ethiopian Medhin - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 21% of games and wins 21%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Medhin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.64 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.54 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 41% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 27% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 48% | 40% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 54% | • 54% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 60% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Negele Arsi KetemaGoalKitika Jemma
Head-to-head
Record from Negele Arsi Ketema's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Ethiopian Medhin. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 1:1 Ethiopian Medhin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.96 goals per game on average and Ethiopian Medhin 0.75. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 38% of Ethiopian Medhin's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopian Medhin in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Ethiopian Medhin 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.