Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema play Ethiopian Medhin in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 9 April 2026 at 12:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Ethiopian Medhin: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.97 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Ethiopian Medhin scores 0.78 and concedes 0.84. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 37%, Ethiopian Medhin 43%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 29%, Ethiopian Medhin 24%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Ethiopian Medhin has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.14. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.2 shots per match, Ethiopian Medhin: 7.3.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.53. Ethiopian Medhin: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (11 goals). Ethiopian Medhin: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Negele Arsi Ketema are the bookmakers' favorites on paper — they sit 3rd in the table with 11 wins this season versus Ethiopian Medhin's 5 wins (18th), and the home side’s seasonal record is 24 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home the hosts are defensively solid: 0.75 goals conceded per match on average and 42% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 0.92 goals on the road and have only 33% clean sheets. However, Ethiopian Medhin show better short-term form — in the last 5 matches they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 3 with an average of 1.6 points per match, whereas the hosts over the same period have 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, only 2 goals scored and 4 conceded and 1.0 point per match on average. The visitors create more chances and higher-quality opportunities: away xG 1.29 versus home xG 1.12 for the hosts, averaging 7.58 shots and 3.17 on target per match versus Negele’s 6.75 shots and 2.83 on target, with similar conversion rates 13% vs 14%. Considering the hosts’ league-position advantage and superior defence against the visitors’ offensive activity, I project a home win with estimated probabilities: 56% home win, 24% draw, 20% away win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.8 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 24% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.78 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.84 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Ethiopian Medhin keeps a clean sheet in 30% (11 of 37 matches).
Ethiopian Medhin scores in 54% of matches (20 of 37 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 45% (17 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under — Ethiopian Medhin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.24 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopian Medhin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Medhin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.76 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 40% | ▲ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 29% | 28% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 40% | ▼ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 56% | ▼ 51% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 66% | 59% | • 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Negele Arsi Ketema 1 - 0 - 0 Ethiopian Medhin. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 1:1 Ethiopian Medhin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.97 goals per game on average and Ethiopian Medhin 0.78. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 43% of Ethiopian Medhin's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopian Medhin in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Ethiopian Medhin 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.