Neom SC vs Al Ittifaq: match statistics

Al Ittifaq holds a slight statistical edge: the visitors have 14 wins this season versus Neom’s 12 and have scored 50 goals compared to the hosts’ 42. In the last 5 matches Al Ittifaq have scored 9 goals and Neom 6, with a points-per-game average over the five of 1.4 for the visitors versus 1.0 for the hosts, indicating superior recent form for Al Ittifaq. At home Neom concede on average 1.44 goals and record 25% clean sheets, while Al Ittifaq away concede 1.75 goals and have only 19% clean sheets, so the home side’s defense is marginally more stable. Efficiency, however, favors the visitors: shot conversion is about 14% for Al Ittifaq versus 10% for Neom, despite the hosts’ average xG (1.36) being slightly higher than the visitors’ (1.27). Considering the higher goal tally (50 vs 42), better conversion (14% vs 10%) and higher recent points average (1.4 vs 1.0), I favor Al Ittifaq, although Neom’s solid home defense increases the probability of a draw.

Both teams show a similar scoring profile on the season: Neom averages 1.53 goals scored and concedes 1.53, while Al Ittifaq scores 1.50 and concedes 1.75, indicating risk of goals from both sides. Season BTTS rates are 59% for Neom and 50% for Al Ittifaq, with the league BTTS at 59%, which gives a default edge to the BTTS - Yes option. In the last 5 matches Neom recorded BTTS in 80% (4/5) and Al Ittifaq in 40% (2/5); the visitors recently score 1.8 and concede 1.0, and the hosts score 1.2 and concede 1.6, so both sides have been creating chances recently. Recent xG are nearly identical (1.67 vs 1.68), shots on target 4.06 vs 4.63, and matches over 2.5 goals are 59% and 63%, meaning games are open and favor goal exchanges. Considering the above and the low clean sheet expected for the visitors (19%), I tip BTTS: Yes with an estimated probability of about 65%.

The forecast is based on xG and seasonal averages: Neom has xG_for 1.18 and Al Ittifaq xG_against 1.60 — average (1.18+1.60)/2 ≈ 1.39 xG for the home side; similarly Al Ittifaq has xG_for 1.27 and Neom xG_against 1.74 — (1.27+1.74)/2 ≈ 1.51 xG for the away side. This translates to expected goals of 1.40 for Neom and 1.50 for Al Ittifaq, totaling 2.90 goals, which is slightly below the league average of 3.02 goals per match. Seasonal percentages confirm a bias toward goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 76% of Neom’s matches and 81% of Al Ittifaq’s matches (average ≈78.5%), while Over 2.5 is 59% and 63% (≈61%). Additionally BTTS is 59% for Neom and 50% for Al Ittifaq, and average shots 10.41 vs 10.38 and shots on target 4.06 vs 4.63 support a scenario of at least two goals. Based on this I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (~79% probability); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~61%), and Over 3.5 stands at about 49%.

Neom holds an advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 35% of home matches and average 0.82 first-half goals, while Al Ittifaq concedes 0.94 goals to halftime on average and are trailing at the break in 63% of their away games. This suggests a high probability of the home side leading at the break, but second-half indicators favor the visitors: Al Ittifaq average 1.06 goals after the break and win 44% of second halves versus 28% for Neom. The gap is even more pronounced over the last five matches — the visitors average 1.6 points in second halves, the hosts only 0.2, demonstrating Al Ittifaq’s ability to stage a turnaround after halftime. Consequently, the most likely scenario is HT/FT 1/2 (Neom leading at half-time, Al Ittifaq winning at full-time) with the highest probability at 30%, while 1/1 and X/2 are treated as realistic but less likely alternatives.