Newport County vs Rochdale: match statistics

Newport County hold a slight edge in recent form: they have scored 7 goals and collected 7 points from their last five matches, while Rochdale have also scored 7 goals but accumulated 6 points. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 games, compared with just one victory for the visitors, although Rochdale have drawn three times, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested match. Newport’s defense looks weaker, however, having conceded 9 goals during this period compared with 8 for their opponents. A positive result for the hosts could be influenced by their higher league position—13th compared with 17th—as well as their slightly more effective conversion of recent form into wins. The lack of detailed home-and-away data limits the extent of Newport’s advantage, making a draw a realistic alternative.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, providing a very strong and consistent 80% signal for Newport County and Rochdale. During this period, Newport averaged 1.4 goals scored but conceded as many as 1.8, while Rochdale scored 1.4 and allowed opponents to score 1.6 goals per match. The hosts created chances worth 1.77 xG, while Rochdale’s defense allowed opponents 1.78 xG, giving Newport solid grounds to find the net. Rochdale, in turn, generated a more modest 1.05 xG, but Newport allowed an average of 1.58 xG, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. The last-five-match record, with both teams scoring 7 goals and conceding 9 and 8 respectively, supports a Goal/Goal scenario.

In their last five matches, Newport averaged 1.4 goals, while Rochdale conceded 1.6, which supports the likelihood of the home side scoring at least once. At the same time, Newport conceded 1.8 goals per match, while Rochdale averaged 1.4 goals scored, giving the visitors a solid basis to find the net as well. The underlying data is particularly favorable for the home side: their average xG stands at 1.77, compared with the 1.78 xG allowed by Rochdale. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five matches, while both teams scored in as many as 80% of their games. However, Over 1.5 remains the strongest selection, as the projected total of 2.90 goals provides a clear safety margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Rochdale have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, or 60%, while Newport have drawn just 1 of 5. In the first halves, both teams recorded two draws in five matches, with an identical average of 1.0 total goal before the break. Newport scored only 0.2 goals in the first half during this period and conceded 0.8, making an early home lead unlikely. After the break, both teams regularly become involved in more open passages of play, averaging 2.2 goals in Newport matches and 2.0 in Rochdale matches, although Rochdale also drew the second half in 60% of cases. The hosts have a slightly better overall points return from their last five matches, 1.4 compared with 1.2, which supports their chances of maintaining the draw but does not provide a clear basis for backing a home win.